碳交易市场链接的成本与福利分析——基于MAC曲线的实证研究  

The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Carbon Market Linkage——An Empirical Study Based on MAC Curves

作　　者：傅京燕[1,2] 代玉婷 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632 [2]暨南大学资源环境与可持续发展研究所,广东广州510632

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2015年第9期84-98,共15页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于强度减排的碳交易机制对产业竞争力影响的理论研究与ECGE模拟"(批准号71273115);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(暨南远航计划)"时间约束下中国碳排放峰值预测及低碳政策有效性研究"(批准号15JNYH010)

摘　　要：全国统一碳排放权交易市场的建立拟于2016年启动,但碳交易市场的链接存在经济福利的不确定性,因此,需要量化碳交易市场给社会带来的福利影响。本文基于2001—2012年省级面板数据构造总减排成本函数,进而利用边际减排成本(MAC)曲线模拟分析了高碳区、中碳区和低碳区的三个"交易代表"在完全竞争的碳交易市场中的成本和福利变化。研究结果表明,以碳强度衡量的区域异质性会导致MAC曲线的差异化——低碳区MAC曲线呈递增型,高碳区和中碳区的MAC曲线呈倒U型,而倒U型的MAC曲线使得市场碳排放权的总供给曲线呈水平状,供给和需求曲线决定了市场均衡碳价为217,22元/吨CO_2e;为履行2020年碳强度下降40%—45%的减排目标,建立统一的碳交易市场可使交易者平均每年的减排开支下降3,94%。本文的主要启示是:发挥市场手段在解决温室气体排放问题中的重要作用,重视排放行为的产权化,根据各省份发展阶段以兼顾公平,并辅以必要的政策支持,通过扩大交易规模逐步实现碳交易市场的地区融合。An unified carbon trading market is expected to be established in 2016, but the economic impact of linkage is uncertain. Thus, it is essential to quantify the welfare arising from carbon market linkage. This paper constructs total abatement functions by provincial panel data from 2001 to 2012, and examines the change of costs and benefits of three trading representatives who come from high carbon zones, medium carbon zones and low carbon zones respectively, using marginal abatement cost （MAC） curves. We find that the regional heterogeneity measured by the carbon intensity can lead to differences in MAC curves, which is showed by the increasing type of MAC curves in low carbon zones, and the inverted-U MAC curves in middle carbon zones and in high carbon zones. And then the findings exhibit that the supply curve of tradable carbon permits is horizontal because of the inverted-U MAC curve in middle carbon zones. In addition, the market clearing price, which indicated by the intersection of the supply curve and the demand curve, is about 217.22RMB/tco2e. Furthermore, we find that the unified carbon trading market can substantially cut counterparties＇ abatement cost to make carbon intensity decrease by 40%--45% in 2020 on average by 3.94%. The main implication is that it＇s essential to let the market solve the problem of greenhouse gas emissions, stress emission capitalization, pay attention to equity based on the development stage of different regions, and gradually achieve regional integration by expanding trade scales.

关 键 词：边际减排成本 碳交易市场 贸易所得 成本-福利分析 

分 类 号：F424.1[经济管理—产业经济]