PRECIS模拟系统对中国地面气温变化的QUMP集成预估  

Surface Air Temperature Change over China Based on the PRECIS_QUMP Ensemble Simulation

作　　者：纪潇潇 刘昌波[1,2] 潘婕[1] 梁驹 佟金鹤[1] 冯强[4] 许吟隆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 [2]中国人民解放军95762部队 [3]Department of Meteorology,University of Reading,Earley Gate [4]中国科学院对地观测与数字地球科学中心

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2015年第5期500-510,共11页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题2013BAC09B04;2012BAC19B10;农业部"引进国际先进农业科学技术计划"重点项目2011-G9

摘　　要：利用英国Hadley中心QUMP模式（Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections）集合的5组敏感性试验产生的全球气候背景场驱动区域气候模拟系统PRECIS（Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies）产生的降尺度数据,分析PRECIS对中国地面气温变化的模拟能力,同时对SRES A1B温室气体排放情景下21世纪中期（2021-2050年）中国区域的温度做出预估。模拟能力分析结果显示：PRECIS在5组背景场驱动下都可以较好地模拟出气候基准时段（1961-1900年）中国区域气温的年变化和时空分布特征,但存在暖偏差,高敏感度模拟实验的暖偏差幅度要大于中低敏感度。预估结果显示：5组敏感性试验降尺度模拟的温度均呈增加趋势,其中最低温度的变暖幅度高于平均温度和最高温度。高敏感度试验Q10模拟的升温幅度介于低敏感度模拟和中敏感度模拟之间,其他敏感性试验表现出高敏感度模拟的升温幅度高于中敏感度模拟,而中敏感度模拟高于低敏感度模拟。从模拟的升温空间分布上看,西北地区升温幅度最显著,可达2.08-2.61°C,华南地区升温幅度相对较小,为1.33-1.84°C,但不同敏感度模拟的升温幅度具有一定的区域差异。Using the PRECIS （Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies） regional climate modeling system driven by five members of QUMP （Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections） model ensembles developed by the Hadley Center/Met Office, this study analyzes the simulations of the surface air temperature and predicts the temperature during 2021-2050 under the IPCC SRES A1B emissions scenario over China. The result shows reasonable capabilities of PRECIS-downscaled QUMP members in simulating the baseline （1961-1990） climatology of surface temperature over China, though general overestimations of temperature values compared with observation were found over several regions.The projection shows increases in surface temperature simulated by all of the ensemble members, but differences of the warming tendency were also found among these members. The simulated annual mean daily minimum temperature showed the most significant warming compared with the annual mean daily mean temperature and the daily maximum temperature. Besides sensitivity test Q10, the warming simulated by each member corresponded with the climate sensitivity of the driven GCM. Overall, the most significant projected warming was shown over Northwest China with a range of 2.08-2.61℃, while the lowest range （1.33-1.84 ℃） was located over South China. However, differences of projected regional-scale warming were also shown among each member.

关 键 词：QUMP集合 PRECIS系统 SRES A1B情景 地面气温 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]