直升机海上运行平台起降阶段风险模型构建的应用研究  

Applied study on the construction of risk model of helicopters' takeoffs and landings on offshore operating platform

作　　者：孙佳[1] 吴乔 盖文妹[1,3] 隋佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航管理干部学院航空安全管理系,北京100102 [2]东方通用航空有限责任公司,天津300300 [3]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《华北科技学院学报》2015年第3期90-100,共11页Journal of North China Institute of Science and Technology

基　　金：航空运输集团应急预案体系标准化建设研究(DGA20150654)

摘　　要：以直升机海上运行平台起降为研究对象,结合SHELL模型、TEM模型、HFACS模型的建模原理,构建了三维立体的风险分析模型,以人、软件、硬件、环境为关键因素,以威胁、差错、不安全状态为关键点,以事件、前提、监督、组织层面为关键环节,对起降风险进行全面立体系统地分析,汇总了个人、班组、执管部门、监察部门、公司五大层面29个、14个、12个、6个和4个风险因素指标。基于实例应用,运用层次分析法确定了29个个人因素指标的具体权重并进行了定量分析,通过其他四大方面与个人方面的关系,分别对班组、执管部门、监察部门、公司层面的风险因素进行定性分析,并制定了相应控制措施,分析结果表明,所提风险分析模型及风险分析方法可行且有效。Taking helicopters ’ takeoffs and landings on offshore operating platform as the research object , and combining the modeling principles of SHELL model , TEM model and HFACS model , a three -dimensional risk analysis model is constructed.Taking people , software, hardware and environment as the key factors , threats, errors and unsafe state as the key points , event, premise, monitoring and organizational level as the key links, the risk of takeoffs and landings is analyzed thoroughly and systematically , a summary of 29, 14, 12, 6 and 4 risk factors indicators are made on the individual , team, enforcement department , supervision de-partment and the company respectively.Based on a sample application , the specific weight and quantitative analysis of 29 indicators on the individual level is identified by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process （ AHP）.With the relationship between the other four aspects and the individual aspect , the qualitative analysis of the 〈br〉 risk factors on team , enforcement department , supervision department and the corporate level is made , and appropriate control measures are developed.The results show that the proposed model and method of risk anal-ysis is feasible and effective.

关 键 词：安全工程 海上运行 平台起降 风险评价 AHP法 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]