江苏省冬小麦气候适宜度动态模型建立及应用  

Establishment and preliminary evaluation of dynamic model of climatic suitability on winter wheat in Jiangsu province

作　　者：张佩 田娜 赵会颖[3] 高苹 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象服务中心,南京210008 [2]农业部南京设计院,南京210014 [3]遵化市第一中学生物组,河北遵化064200

出　　处：《气象科学》2015年第4期468-473,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省气象局开放基金项目(K201005;K201304;K201107);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406028);农业科技成果转化资金项目(2013GB24160634)

摘　　要：用1961—2010年江苏57个气象站常规气象资料和小麦产量资料,结合前人的研究思路,应用生态适宜度、模糊数学理论,引入权重分析等方法,建立了江苏省冬小麦气候适宜度的动态模型,模型检验结果良好。对1961—2010年冬小麦历年全生育期和各生育期的气候适宜度进行初步分析,结果表明:江苏省各地冬小麦气候适宜度均维持在较高水平,其中冬小麦生育期内温度适宜度最高,降水适宜度维持在较低水平,日照是其生产过程中的关键性制约气象因子。By using conventional meteorological data and wheat production amount data from 57 me- teorological stations during 1961-2010, the dynamic model of climatic suitability on winter wheat was es- tablished by ecological theory of niche-fitness and fuzzy mathematics methods combined with the study of predecessors. The dynamic variation of climatic suitability in the whole and each growth period from 1961 to 2010 was analyzed. Results indicated that the climatic suitability of winter wheat in Jiangsu kept higher level, namely, the temperature was the most suitable, precipitation became less suitable, but sunlight was substantively the main limiting factor.

关 键 词：气候适宜度 动态模型 冬小麦 

分 类 号：S162.53[农业科学—农业气象学]