多普勒雷达风场资料在临近预报中的应用  

Application of Doppler radar radial velocity data to nowcasting

作　　者：刘红艳[1,2] 魏鸣[1,2] 管理[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]江苏省气象科学研究所南京气象雷达开放实验室,江苏南京210009

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2015年第4期483-491,共9页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201201063);北极阁基金(BJG201208);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB430102);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306040);中国气象局2014年关键技术项目(CMAGJ2014M21)

摘　　要：为了研究对流单体移动的运动学和动力学特征,本文综合应用多普勒雷达反射率因子资料和径向速度资料进行雷达回波的外推预报。采用速度方位显示方法（Velocity Azimuth Display,VAD）和交叉相关法（Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation,TREC）,分别得到设定的8个高度的水平风场,并作为回波的引导风,对相应高度的等高平面位置显示（Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicating,CAPPI）反射率因子进行外推。通过两次降水过程分析比较两种方法的外推结果,表明用这两种方法获得的未来60 min内的回波位置与回波实况较吻合;二者在某些高度上预报的评分接近。从两个个例的外推试验发现,预报效果最好的高度层与实际天气过程有关,关键是与降水回波中水平风的垂直分布有关,而不仅仅限于2.5-3.0 km高度。In order to make a study of the kinematic and dynamic characteristics of convective cells, Doppler radar reflectivity factor data and radial velocity data are used to conduct radar echo extrapolation in this study.Therefore, the horizontal wind fields of eight different heights are retrieved by VAD （Velocity Azimuth Display ） method and TREC （Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation ） method, which are taken as the motion vectors of echoes to get the extrapolated forecast of CAPPI （ Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicating） reflectivity factor there.According to the methods of VAD and TREC, the radar echo extrapolation of two rainstorm processes have been carried out. The results indicate that the location of radar echoes during the next 60 min forecasted by the two methods coincides well with that from the observations.The extrapolation results of VAD and TREC are similar at some altitudes, and correspond well at the levels with the best results.The two extrapolation experiments show that the height levels with the best forecast results are related to the weather process, especially the vertical distribution of horizontal wind in the precipitation echo, which are not just limitted to 2. 5-3.0 km.

关 键 词：多普勒速度 VAD 交叉相关法 CAPPI 回波外推 

分 类 号：P406[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456