基于STIRPAT模型的甘肃省交通碳排放测算及影响因素分析  

Calculation and effect factor analysis of transport carbon emission in Gansu Province based on STIRPAT Model

作　　者：武翠芳 熊金辉 吴万才[3] 高文齐 柳雪斌 

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730080 [2]兰州财经大学经济学院,甘肃兰州730080 [3]甘肃广播电视大学,甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2015年第3期826-834,共9页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41401645);国家社科青年基金项目(10CGL050)资助

摘　　要：依据IPCC清单指南的数据,采用"自上而下"的碳排放计算方法,对2000-2013年甘肃省交通碳排放进行测算,对交通碳排放总量、人均量、交通能源碳排放结构及碳排放强度进行动态分析.基于STIRPAT模型,运用岭回归统计方法对甘肃省交通碳排放影响因素进行定量分析.结果表明:甘肃省交通碳排放总量和人均碳排放量都呈逐年上升的趋势;煤炭、汽油、柴油、电力四种能源消费的碳排放量占交通碳排放量的绝大部分;交通碳排放强度呈下降趋势;城镇化水平、客运周转量、货运周转量、人均GDP每增长1%,导致交通碳排放分别增长0.221%、0.137%、0.174%和0.125%.建设低碳交通体系将成为甘肃省交通部门减碳的有效途径.Based on the data of IPCC guideline, in this paper, transport carbon emissions in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2013 were calculated using ＂ from top to bottom＂ method, and total and per-capita transport carbon emissions, structure and intensity of carbon emissions were analyzed. Factors influencing transport carbon emis-sions in the province were quantitatively analyzed by using ridge regression method based on the STIRPAT Model. The results indicate that both total and per-capita transport carbon emissions are increasing year by year in Gansu Province. Carbon emissions of coal, gasoline, diesel, electricity consumptions accounted for the majority of transport carbon emission. However, the intensity of transport carbon emission is going down. When the level of urbanization, passenger turnover, freight turnover and per-capita GDP increases by 1%, the transport carbon emission will increase by 0. 221%, 0. 137%, 0. 174%, and 0. 125%, respectively. Constructing a low-carbon transportation system would become an effective way to reduce carbon emission in the province.

关 键 词：交通 碳排放 STIRPAT模型 甘肃 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]