我国重点国有林区林地面积变化及趋势分析——基于黑龙江森工林区的实证研究  

Changes and Tendency Analysis of Forest Land Area in the Key Stated-Owned Forest Region: a Case Study Based on the Data of Forest Industry Region of Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：刘琳[1,2] 刘美爽[2] 徐永飞[3] 刘俊昌[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]东北林业大学工程技术学院,哈尔滨150040 [3]东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林业科学》2015年第8期88-94,共7页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：国家林业局重点项目(2012-07)

摘　　要：【目的】探寻黑龙江省森工林区1981—2010年林地面积增减变化的规律和特点,并对有林地面积和单位面积蓄积量的未来发展趋势进行预测,以期为相关管理政策的制定提供借鉴和依据。【方法】采用林业用地面积、有林地面积、疏林地面积、无林地面积、未成林地面积、非林业用地面积、天然林面积、人工林面积、林地利用率、林地生产力等指标反映林地面积变化,选取1990—2010年每隔5年的清查数据为原始数据,利用灰色理论GM(1,1)模型,并借助MATLAB计算软件对2025年的单位面积蓄积量和有林地面积进行预测。【结果】1)1981—2010年30年间黑龙江省森工林区经营总面积和林业用地面积呈现双下降的趋势,林区被非法侵占林地数量巨大;2)黑龙江省森工林区有林地面积总体呈上升趋势,从1990年的686.75万hm2增加到2010年的804.45万hm2,增加率为17.14%;3)有林地面积在第2次森林资源复查时达到最低点之后快速上升,在第4次复查之后趋于平稳,反映出国家积极林业政策的作用正在逐渐显现;4)30年间疏林地、未成林地、无林地面积大幅度减少,林地利用率从第1次森林资源复查时为73%上升到第8次森林资源复查时的96%,30年间黑龙江省森工林区林地利用率共上升23个百分点;5)林地利用率在第2次森林资源复查时最低,之后呈现快速上升、趋于平缓的趋势;林地利用率的提高比较显著,然而,衡量林地生产力的重要指标——乔木林单位面积蓄积量却从第1次森林资源复查时的116.52 m3·hm-2下降到第5次森林资源复查时的77.5 m3·hm-2,减少率为33%,直到在第5次森林资源复查后才开始缓慢上升;6)林地生产力与其他各项指标相比具有滞后性,在第5次森林资源复查时达到最低点;7)预测2025年单位面积蓄积量将达到106.99 m3·hm-2,有林地面积将达到831.41万hm2。【结论】违法占用林地和擅自改变林地用途行�Objective]This paper used forest region in Heilongjiang Province as an example to investigate certain regularity and characteristics of the changes in forest woodland area during 1981—2010 ,and analyzed the developmental trend in the future to get valuable conclusions. The research conclusions can provide a certain reference for the establishment of related management policies and basis.[Method]Following indicators were used to reflect the actual changes in forest area： forestry land area,forest land area,open forest land area,non-forest land area,not into woodland area,non-forest area,natural forest area,plantation area,forest land use efficiency,productivity of woodland. Based on the inventory data from 1990 to 2010 and using the theory of grey GM （1,1） model,the forest stock volume per unit and forest land area of 2025 were predicted with the help of MATLAB software. [Result]1 ） The total area of the forest management and forest land area shows the tendency of double down in the forest industry region of Heilongjiang Province during 1981—2010,a huge number of forest land were illegally occupied in forest region. 2） Forest land area in forest industry region of Heilongjiang province e increased from 686. 75 ＆#215; 104 hm2 in1990 to 804. 45 ＆#215; 104 hm2 in 2010,the increasing rate was 17 . 14%. 3 ） Forest land area reached a minimum point in the second forest resources review and then increased rapidly,finally leveled off after the fourth review,the results indicated that the positive effects of national forestry policy were gradually revealed. 4） Open forest land,not into woodland,non-forest land area was greatly reduced during the past 30 years. Forest land use efficiency increased from 73% to 96% between the first and the eighth review of forest resources. 5） Forest land use efficiency in the second forest resources review reached the lowest,then rised rapidly, until leveled off. A significant increase in forest land use efficiency was found,however,the important indicators of forest

关 键 词：林地面积 发展趋势 国有重点林区 

分 类 号：F307.2[经济管理—产业经济]