基于主观贝叶斯方法的输电线路时变停运概率模型及应用  

Transmission Line Time-varying Outage Probability Model Based on Subjective Bayesian and Its Application

作　　者：田珂[1,2] 游大海[1] 龙呈[1] 邹扬[1] 胡金[1] 陈齐瑞 徐鹏[3] 潘玲玲[3] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430074 [2]国网青岛供电公司,山东青岛266002 [3]中国电力科学研究院,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第8期156-161,共6页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目

摘　　要：电力设备时变停运概率作为基于风险度的电网运行轨迹指标的基础数据之一,其合理性直接影响电网运行轨迹指标的合理性。基于主观贝叶斯推理过程建立了输电线路的停运概率模型,在该模型中采用故障树分析方法对输电线路停运原因进行分类,并利用模糊专家系统求取可信度参数,以克服人为取值的不足。仿真结果表明,所建模型能够较好地反映输电线路状态及其外部环境的变化对输电线路停运概率的影响。The time-varying outage probability of the electrical equipment is one of the basis data of the grid running track indicators based on the degree of risk.Its rationality directly affects the reasonableness of the grid trajectory index.The outage probability model of the transmission line is established based on the subjective Bayesian inference process.In this model,the fault tree analysis method is used to classify equipment failure,and the reliability parameters of subjective Bayesian are calculated by using the fuzzy expert system to overcome the lack of human experience.Simulation results show that the model can better reflect the impact of changes in the external environment and the device status on the probability of equipment failure.

关 键 词：输电线路 时变停运概率 不确定性推理 主观贝叶斯方法 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]