物元评价法在南宁市水资源承载力评价中的应用  

Application of Matter-element Evaluation Method in Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Nanning City

作　　者：莫崇勋[1,2,3] 杨庆[1,2,3] 王大洋 金菊良[4] 钟欢欢[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [3]广西大学广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [4]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第9期31-35,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50969001);广西自然科学基金项目(2012GXNSFAA053199);广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室系统性研究项目(2014ZDX01)

摘　　要：针对水资源承载力评价存在的不确定性问题,提出采用物元评价法评价南宁市水资源承载力,并采用由博弈论法确定的综合权重替代传统单一权重,评价效果较好。评价结果表明,南宁市2020、2030年的水资源承载能力评价等级较现状年呈下降趋势,且幅度较大。为实现南宁市社会经济可持续发展,以不降低水资源承载力为准则,通过优化调整重要产业的节水指标,得到可行的工农业节水指标优化组合集,可为相关部门决策提供参考。In order to solve the problems of uncertainty in evaluation of water resources carrying capacity, the matter element evaluation method is used to estimate water resources carrying capacity of Nanning City. It achieved good results when evaluation using comprehensive weight based on the game theory instead of the traditional single weight. The evalu- ation results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Nanning City in 2020 and 2030 has a sharp downward trend compared with the current year. In order to realize the sustainable development of society and economy of Nanning City, taking not reduction of water resources carrying capacity as criterion, the feasible combination set of industrial and agricultural water-saving index optimization is got by adjusting water-saving index of important industrial. Therefore, it provide a reference for related decision-making department.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 物元评价方法 博弈论法 节水指标优化 南宁市 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]