工业化与粮食产量的关系研究:兼论粮食核心区推进工业化的依据  

The Relationship between Industrialization and Grain Production:Basis Underlying the Industrialization of Core Grain-producing Areas

作　　者：王晶[1] 杨宏恩[1] 张志明[2] 田晓燕 

机构地区：[1]河南大学经济学院,开封475004 [2]辽宁大学经济学院,沈阳110136 [3]河南省孟津县投资促进局,洛阳471100

出　　处：《管理评论》2015年第8期47-55,共9页Management Review

基　　金：河南省软科学研究计划项目(112400430076)

摘　　要：粮食安全始终是关系我国国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的全局性重大战略问题,因而粮食核心区省份是否应该推进工业化一直是各方争论的焦点问题。本文首先通过描述国内外一些现象提出理论假设,即在一定条件下工业化可以促使粮食产量的提高。然后建立数理模型和计量模型,利用6个粮食核心区省份1995-2013年的面板数据做了实证研究。研究结果显示:河南、辽宁、吉林和黑龙江四省仍然处于工业化提高粮食产量的起飞阶段,河北和山东两省处于工业化提高粮食产量的高级阶段但工业化水平远未达到使粮食产量最大化的临界值,因此六省份都应该继续推进工业化进程。同时,本文证明了在不同水平下工业化可以提高或降低粮食产量。Abstract： Food security has always been a major strategic focus in China＇ s economy development, social stability and national independence. Accordingly, whether the core grain-producing provinces should vigorously pursue the industrialization has become a bone of contention. This paper firstly gives the theoretical assumptions by describing some domestic and foreign phenomenon, namely, under certain conditions industrialization can promote the improvement of food production. Next, this paper establishes the mathematical and econometric models, and carries out the empirical study on the base of 1995-2003 panel data of 6 core grain-producing provinces. Results show that, Henan, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilong, jiang lie in the take-off stage where industrialization can improve grain yields, and Hebei and Shandong lie in the advanced stage where their industrialization level is far from threshold value to maximize grain yields. Therefore, all the six provinces should continue to promote the industrialization process. This paper proves that at different levels the industrialization may increase or decrease grain production.

关 键 词：工业化 粮食产量 关系 临界值 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F326.11