浙江省人口与经济空间分布变动及匹配关系  

The Matching Relationship and Change of the Spatial Distribution between Population and Economy in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：张祥晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学政治与社会学院,浙江杭州311121

出　　处：《杭州师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第4期128-136,共9页Journal of Hangzhou Normal University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：浙江省第六次人口普查资料开发课题

摘　　要：集中指数和重心显示浙江人口与经济分布均趋向于不均衡,且经济分布的非均衡性大于人口分布,但二者之间的偏离趋于缩小。集中度显示县域尺度上人口与经济集中分布区面积扩大、集聚程度提高,且集聚与分散变动均形成了核心区;人口与经济集中分布区形成"交叉但不重叠"的地域关系,经济分布对人口分布的解释程度在73%-90%之间;人口与经济空间分布的匹配程度提高,二者主导匹配关系由1982年的经济滞后型转变为2010年的协调发展型。基于浙江人口与经济分布的动态匹配过程,认为实现人口与经济均衡分布的路径是:以产业结构升级及布局分布调整为核心动力,在经济超前型县域继续提高经济发展对就业的创造能力,以吸引人口集中为主;在经济滞后型县域承接产业转移和扩展产业的同时,以转移剩余人口为主;在协调发展型县域促进经济发展的同时,继续保持经济与人口同步增长的协调发展速度。The concentration index and the pointer centre show that the distribution of both population and economy in Zhejiang Province tend to be imbalanced. While the imbalance Of the economy distribution is more significant than that of the population, the deviation of them tends to narrow. The concentration ratio on the county level shows that the concentrated distribution of population and economy becomes larger in the area and higher in the degree of their agglomeration. The changes of both agglom- eration and dispersion form core areas. The concentrated distribution area of population and economy forms a geographic rela- tionship of ＂crossing but not overlapping＂. The economy distribution accounts for 73% -90% of the population distribution. The matching degree between the population spatial distribution and the economy spatial distribution is improving greatly. The leading matching relationship between them changes from economy lag type in 1982 to coordinated development type in 2010. Based on change process of dynamic match between the population and the economy in Zhejiang Province, it is proposed in this paper that the ways to realize the balance between the population and the economy are the following. Taking the upgrading of the industrial structure and layout adjustment as the core power, more employment opportunities should be offered by further eco- nomic development in some developed counties. The emphasis should be put on attracting population concentration. In backward regions of economic development, while industrial transfer and industrial expansion are undertaken, the emphasis should be put on transferring surplus population. In counties of coordinated development type, while promoting the development of the econo- my, the coordinated development speed of economy and population should be kept.

关 键 词：浙江省 人口 经济 空间分布 匹配关系 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]