国际集装箱内陆段运输链选择行为异质性建模  

Modeling heterogeneity in choice behavior of inland transport chain for international container

作　　者：陶学宗[1] 张戎[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306 [2]同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海201804

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2015年第3期40-45,共6页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71271154);上海市自然科学基金(15ZR1420400)

摘　　要：托运人的异质性对其货运方式选择行为具有重要影响,忽略异质性问题将会导致预测错误.在分析现有异质性处理方法优缺点的基础上,指出随机参数Logit模型能更好地处理该问题.建立考虑异质性的国际集装箱内陆段运输链选择行为模型,阐述采用极大模拟似然法估计参数的步骤,对随机参数的分布形式和抽样方式进行讨论.以浙江义乌市为例进行实证分析,结果表明,内陆运输总时间对义乌不同国际集装箱托运人的效用呈现出对数正态分布的规律,考虑异质性所建立的模型拟合度更好,且具有更好的解释能力.The heterogeneity of shippers has important effects on their freight mode choice behavior. Igno-ring the heterogeneity will lead to prediction error. Based on analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of existing methods of dealing with heterogeneity,it is pointed out that the random parameter Logit model can better process this issue. A behavioral model considering heterogeneity for international container in-land transport chain choice is established,the procedure of parameter estimation adopting the maximum simulation likelihood method is expounded,and the distribution patterns sampling methods of random parameters are discussed. Taking Yiwu city in Zhejiang province for empirical analysis,the results show that the utility of total time of inland transport to different international container shippers in Yiwu obeys the lognormal distribution,and the model considering heterogeneity achieves better goodness-of-fit and has a better explanatory power.

关 键 词：集装箱运输 方式选择 异质性 随机参数Logit模型 

分 类 号：U169.7[交通运输工程] U491