蒙特卡洛模拟法在复杂系统可靠性仿真中的应用研究  

Research on Monte Carlo Method in Reliability Simulation of Complex Systems

作　　者：曾畅[1] 方强[2] 吴军[1] 朱勇猛[1] 关静[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学船舶与海洋工程学院,武汉430074 [2]中国舰船研究设计中心,武汉430064

出　　处：《四川兵工学报》2015年第9期65-68,共4页Journal of Sichuan Ordnance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51475189);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助课题

摘　　要：针对蒙特卡洛模拟法应用于复杂系统可靠性仿真分析时遇到的仿真收敛速度慢和精度低等缺陷,建立了复杂系统可靠性仿真模型,使用线性同余发生器抽样产生随机事件,根据事件对任务的影响来推算系统的任务可靠度,并与数学解析方法计算的结果进行对比;结果显示,提出的蒙特卡洛模拟法进行复杂系统可靠性仿真分析时所得到的结果误差在允许范围内,且收敛效果较好。In order to deal with slow convergence and low precision defects of Monte Carlo method applied to analyze the reliability of complex systems, a reliability simulation model of a complex system was built. Then a linear congruential generator was used to generate random sampling events. And then, the task re- liability of the system was reduced according to the influence of the events on the task. Comparisons were made between simulated results and mathematical results. It was shown that the Monte Carlo method has higher precision and a well-performed convergence.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛 复杂系统 可靠性仿真 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]