云南对外直接投资最优行为路径选择  

Route Choice for Optimum Behavior of Foreign Direct Investment in Yunnan Province

作　　者：陈坤[1] 杨立生[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济学院,昆明650500 [2]云南民族大学管理学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《长春大学学报》2015年第9期19-25,共7页Journal of Changchun University

基　　金：云南省社会科学基金项目(YB2013086);云南民族大学研究生创新基金科研项目(2015YJCXY132)

摘　　要：以云南省为例,基于出口贸易与东道国不确定的市场需求,建立对外直接投资与出口贸易的动态模型进行分析与实证检验。结果表明:企业对外直接投资的沉淀成本及东道国的市场规模是影响企业对外直接投资最优行为路径选择的主要因素,对外直接投资与出口贸易的滞后项呈正相关关系。企业进行对外直接投资的前期阶段,对外直接投资对出口贸易的替代效应较为明显;而在成熟阶段,二者之间的替代关系逐渐变为互补关系。Taking Yunnan Province as an example, based on the export trade and the uncertain market demand of host country, this pa-per establishes a dynamic mod for foreign direct investment and export trade.Analysis and empirical findings show that the sunk costs offoreign direct investment and the market size of host country are the main factors affecting the optimum behavior path selection and thereis a positive correlation between foreign direct investment and the lag of export trade.At the early stage of enterprises＇ foreign direct in-vestment, the substitution effect of export trade by foreign direct investment is more obvious ; but at the mature stage, the relationship be-tween the two gradually becomes complementary relationship.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 动态均衡分析 比较静态分析 出口贸易 

分 类 号：F830.591[经济管理—金融学]