广东省手足口病气象危险因素阈值效应的研究  

Threshold effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province

作　　者：杜志成[1] 张王剑[1] 于石成[2] 郝元涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学公共卫生学院医学统计与流行病学系卫生信息研究中心广东省卫生信息学重点实验室 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2015年第19期3457-3460,3495,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(81473064)

摘　　要：目的研究气象因素影响广东省手足口病流行的阈值效应,为该省手足口病预警和防控提供科学依据。方法利用2009-2012年广东省手足口病监测数据和同期的气象数据,建立分类回归树模型,探明气象因素影响手足口病发病的阈值效应,并预测2013年手足口病的高风险时段。结果回归树模型结果显示当平均气温≥193.7(0.1℃)并且平均相对湿度≥79.21(1%)时,发病的相对危险度达到最大,RR=1.92。分类树模型结果显示当平均气温≥197.5(0.1℃),并且平均相对湿度≥77.39(1%)时,手足口病的暴发风险最大(P=0.786)。最后预测结果显示4-9月是高风险时段。结论基于分类回归树模型的阈值效应研究在手足口病危险因素筛选和发病风险的预警等方面具有一定的实用价值。Objective To explore the threshold effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease （HFMD） in Guangdong, so as to provide scientific evidences for the warning, prevention and control of HFMD. Methods We built the classification and regression tree models （CART） based on HFMD surveillance data and meteorological data from 2009 to 2012, and explored the threshold effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD, then predicted the high-risk period of HFMD in 2013. Results The regression tree model showed that the relative risk of incidence on HFMD was maximized with 1.92 when the average temperature was greater than or equal to 193.7 （0. 1 ℃） and the average relative humidity was greater than or equal to 79.21 （1%）. While the classification tree model showed that the risk of outbreaks on HFMD was maximized （P=0.786） when the average temperature was greater than or equal to 197. 5 （0.1 ℃） and the average relative humidity was greater than or equal to 77. 39 （1%）. The predictive result for 2013 showed that the high-risk period was between April and September. Conclusion The threshold effect study based on CART models has a certain practical value on the screening of risk factors and early warning on HFMD.

关 键 词：手足口病 气象因素 分类回归树 阈值效应 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]