影子银行对我国经济增长影响的实证研究——基于2007-2014年数据  

Empirical Study on the Influence of Shadow Banks on China's Economic Growth: Based on the Data from 2007 to 2014

作　　者：许艳梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学商学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《安徽商贸职业技术学院学报》2015年第3期33-37,共5页Journal of Anhui Business College

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(12&ZD064);国家自然科学基金项目(71240009)

摘　　要：运用2007年至2014年我国宏观月度数据,构建VAR模型实证研究影子银行与我国经济增长的关系,研究结果发现影子银行与我国经济增长之间的关系呈倒U型。这意味着,发展之初影子银行的扩张对经济增长起促进作用,达到一定规模后将阻碍经济增长。因此,一方面要充分发挥影子银行对经济增长的正能量,另一方面也要严格控制影子银行规模的无序膨胀给宏观经济带来的负效应。Using the monthly macro data（2007-2014） in our country, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between shadow banks and China＇s economic growth by building up a VAR（Value-at-Risk） model, concluding that there exists an inverted U curve relationship between the two, which means at the beginning the expansion of shadow banks has positive influence on economic growth, but when expanded to certain scale, the banks will hinder economic growth. Therefore, on one hand we should fully display shadow banks＇ role in promoting economic growth, on the other hand we should strictly control the expansion of shadow banks and prevent them from expanding disorderly, which will cause negative effect on macro-economy.

关 键 词：影子银行 经济增长 倒U型 正能量 

分 类 号：F830.39[经济管理—金融学]