油价波动背景下的煤制天然气产业竞争力分析  

Competitiveness Analysis of Coal-to-gas under Fluctuation of Crudeoil Price

作　　者：温倩[1] 李志坚[1] 

机构地区：[1]石油和化学工业规划院,北京100013

出　　处：《化学工业》2015年第4期8-14,共7页Chemical Industry

摘　　要：煤制天然气产业在国家政策支持和工艺技术成熟的总体条件下迎来了良好的发展时机。虽然国际油价变化影响我国天然气进口格局和国内供需关系,增加了煤制天然气项目的不确定性,但煤制天然气总体竞争实力依然强劲。相比于其他与油价相关性更强的煤化工产品,煤制天然气项目受油价波动的直接影响更小。在煤制天然气出厂价等于增量气价的假设下,计算不同油价对应的竞争煤价,结果显示,煤制天然气项目具有一定的低油价承受能力。我国天然气(国产气、进口管道气和LNG、增量气)的价格构成与油价关系复杂,天然气的量价齐升仍是主要发展趋势。相比于进口气和其他非常规气,煤制天然气竞争优势显著。为进一步降低风险,提出了煤制天然气项目的发展策略。There are good development opportunities for coal-to-gas industry under the national policy support and mature technology. Although the international oil price changes affect the pattern of China＇s gas imports and domestic supply and demand,and increase the uncertainty of coal-to-gas projects, but the overall competitiveness of coal-to-gas is still strong. Compared to other kinds of coal conversion projects whose products have stronger correlation between oil, coal-to-gas projects have smaller impact by fluctuations in oil price. In the assumption that gas ex-factory price is equaled to the incremental gas price, the calculation of competitive price of coal under different oil prices indicate that coal-to-gas project do have certain economic tolerance under low oil price. There are complex relationships of China＇s natural gas price between oil price. It is still a development trend of the amount and price of natural gas. Compared to import gas and other unconventional gas, coal-to-gas has significant competitive advantage. In order to further reduce risk, some development strategies of coal-to-gas project are put forward.

关 键 词：煤制天然气项目 竞争力分析 原油价格 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1