基于情景分析的西北农村社会-生态系统脆弱性研究——以榆中县中连川乡为例  

Vulnerability Assessment of Rural Social-ecological System Based on Scenario Analysis:A Case Study of Zhonglianchuan Town in Yuzhong County

作　　者：杨新军[1] 张慧[1] 王子侨 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《地理科学》2015年第8期952-959,共8页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171127);教育部人文社会科学项目(12YJC840040)资助

摘　　要：人地系统及其脆弱性是地理学研究的核心内容。近年来,脆弱性研究对象逐渐由生态系统转变到人地耦合系统即社会-生态系统,由于该耦合系统具有多尺度扰动和多利益主体并存的特点,且易受不确定性的干扰,目前关于系统脆弱性评价方法难以解释系统的不确定性。选择榆中县中连川乡作为研究区域,尝试将社会与生态环境信息结合起来进行脆弱性研究。首先运用情景分析方法,确定当地社会-生态系统未来的情景变化的关键驱动力为干旱气候和政府决策,筛选出在两者组合下系统未来情景概率较高的3种情景S1(干旱减缓,有政策支持),S2(干旱缓解,无政策支持)和S3(干旱加剧,有政策支持)。通过实地调查,对多利益主体(农户、管理者和科研工作者)进行情景访谈,对不同利益主体对不同情景的可接受程度进行测度,结合社会-生态矩阵分析,得到不同利益主体对系统未来的可接受程度,以此判断利益主体在未来变化情景下的脆弱度。结果显示,在S1情景下,当地农民和管理者的脆弱性较低;在S2和S3情景下,当地农民和管理者的可接受度是负向的,表明其脆弱性增加,干旱加剧是影响当地未来发展的决定因素,政策支持在一定程度上弥补干旱带来的消极影响。根据不同利益主体的态度,提出未来当地发展的相关政策建议。The vulnerability of human-environmental system is the key for geographical research. Social-eco-logical system（SES）and its resilience research provide a new idea and an integrated theoretical framework for Human-environmental analysis. In the latest decade, the objects of vulnerability study gradually transform from the ecological system to the Socio-ecological Systems, that is, the human-environmental coupled sys-tems. As Social-ecological systems have multiple-scale panarchy and multiple differing stakeholders are in-volved, the traditional methodology for assessing vulnerability of Socio-ecological Systems could not explain the uncertainty about the very system. In this article, Zhonglianhuan Town in Yuzhong County of Gansu Prov-ince was taken as the study area, a field survey about contextual interview with multiple differing stakeholders which include the farmers, local managers and academic researchers were conducted, the acceptability of dif-ferent people toward different scenarios could be measured as an indicator of their fragility. Then, the vulnera-bility of rural Social-ecological system was analyzed. The two key drivers of the rural SES were climatic drought and government policy by using scenario analysis, whose interactions decided the future of local SES. Then, with the cross-impact analysis, three scenarios （ S1, S2 and S3） were filtered which is most likely to hap-pen in the future. Based on the scenario analysis, the acceptability of stakeholders toward the three different scenarios was measured combining with social-ecological matrix, and then the vulnerability in the three diffi-dent scenarios was judged. The result indicates that, In scenario 1, Drought was alleviated and there were poli-cy support, the vulnerability of farmers and local managers is low;in scenario 2 （Drought was alleviated but there was no policy support）and 3（there was policy support but Drought occurred most frequently）, the accept-ability of farmers and local managers was negative-going and the vulnerabi

关 键 词：社会-生态系统 脆弱性 情景分析 榆中县 

分 类 号：K902[历史地理—人文地理学]