考虑参数不确定性的地下饮用水源地水质健康风险评价  

Health Risk Assessment of Groundwater Quality in Source of Drinking Water Based on the Uncertain Parameters

作　　者：郑德凤[1] 赵锋霞[1] 孙才志[1,2] 臧正[1] 苏琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《地理科学》2015年第8期1007-1013,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(14YJAZH112);辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(ZJ2014034);辽宁经济社会发展立项课题(2015lslktxxjc-03)资助

摘　　要：首先引入环境健康风险评价模型,考虑模型中部分参数的不确定性,采用三角模糊数表征暴露参数的区间范围,选取风险管理易接受的可信度水平对暴露参数的区间数进行转化,建立基于三角模糊数的水质健康风险评价模型,对饮用水源地地下水中化学致癌物和非致癌污染物通过饮水途径、皮肤接触和呼吸途径所致健康危害的风险率进行了分析与计算。以盘锦市6个地下饮用水源地的水质分析资料为例,应用上述水质健康风险评价模型,分别对水中化学致癌物和非致癌物经饮水、皮肤接触和呼吸途径所致人体健康风险进行评价。结果表明致癌物对人体健康危害远大于非致癌物,非致癌物所致人体健康风险不受关注。污染物经饮水途径所致人体健康危害大于呼吸途径和皮肤接触途径,呼吸途径和皮肤接触途径所致人体健康风险可以忽略。化学致癌物所致人体健康危害排序为Cr6+>As>Cd,非致癌物所致人体健康风险排序为氟化物>铅>铜>锰>锌>铁>汞>氨氮>氰化物>挥发酚。水源地中大洼水源地存在的致癌风险率最大,其次是兴一和兴南水源地,石山、高升和盘东水源地存在的致癌风险最小。据此可确定各饮用水源地水中污染物的主次及治理的优先顺序,为饮用水源污染的风险管理提供依据。The assessment model of environmental health risk was firstly introduced in this article. Considering the uncertainty of some parameters in the model, triangle fuzzy number was used to express interval range of exposure parameters. The interval range of exposure parameters was transformed into interval estimate by choosing acceptable reliability level of risk management. Then the model on health risk of groundwater quality based on triangle fuzzy number was established. By using the above model, interval estimates of the health risk rate from carcinogens and non-carcinogens by drinking water, skin touch and breathing approach could be respectively calculated in the sources of drinking groundwater. Furthermore, taking the 6 sources of drinking groundwater in Panjin as an example, the health risk rates from carcinogens and non-carcinogens by drinking water, skin touch and breathing approach were respectively calculated according to the groundwater quality da-ta of 6 sources of drinking water. The results showed that the risk rates from carcinogens to human health were greatly bigger than risk rates from non-carcinogens, so risk from non-carcinogens wasn＇t usually paid atten-tion by people. The health risk rates from all the contaminants by drinking water were greater than the risk rates by breathing and skin touch approach which can be generally neglected. The health risk rates from carcin-ogens by drinking water had already exceeded the risk attribute values proposed by U.S.EPA and badly endan-gered the health of the residents. The health risk rates from carcinogens by breathing and skin touch approach were less than the risk attribute values and had little harm to the people. The ranking of risk values from chemi-cal carcinogens was chromium （Ⅵ）, Arsenic, Cadmium, and the ranking of risk values from non-carcinogens was Fluoride, Lead, Copper, Manganese, Zinc, Iron, Mercury, Ammonia, Cyanide, Volatile phenol. Among these sources of drinking groundwater in Panjin, the health risk values from all the contami

关 键 词：健康风险 饮用水源 三角模糊数 致癌物 非致癌物 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]