我国总需求结构持续失衡的空间经济学解释——来自城市面板数据的证据  

A Spatial Economic Interpretation of China's Sustained Imbalance of Aggregate Demand Structure:Evidence from City- level Panel Data

作　　者：李辉文[1,2] 左翔[1] 欧定余[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院,上海201620 [2]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《湖南科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第3期92-98,共7页Journal of Hunan University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(08BJL013);湖南省教育厅基地开放重点项目(10K060);湖南省社科基金一般项目(06ZC61);上海市高校085工程项目(x085132441-3;Z085-14105;Z085YYJJ13004;Z085YYJJ13041;ZK-14013);上海市教委重点学科专项项目(JWXK-14001)

摘　　要：人口规模越大的城市,其基础设施的利用效率越高,而城市投资率越低。按东部地区和中西部地区子样本回归,发现城市人口规模扩张对降低投资率的效应在东部和中部地区是显著的,而在西部地区不显著。这一结果在控制一系列变量和城市固定效应之后依然高度显著。这意味着从推动宏观经济层面总需求结构的合理调整出发,有必要改革现行控制城市规模人口的政策取向,尤其应当放松对东部地区和中部地区城市人口规模增长的限制,以促进中国经济在新常态下平衡、协调、可持续快速健康发展。Results show that the larger scale of urban population is associated with higher utilization efficiency of infrastructure, as well as lower rate of city investment. Using sub - sample regressions in the east, the central and the west regions, we find that the expansion of urban population reduces investment rate in the east and the central regions significantly, while it does insignificantly in the west. These results are still highly significant after controlling a series of variables and urban fixed effects, which means that considering from the perspective of promoting the rational adjustment of aggregate demand structure in macroeconomic level, it is necessary to change the current policy orientation of controlling urban population scale, especially to relax the restriction of the increases of the urban population in the east and the central regions, in order to accelerate a sustainable, sound and speedy development of Chinese economy under the ＂new normal＂.

关 键 词：城市化 城市规模 投资率 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]