基于系统动力学的关于突发事件后网络舆情热度研究  

Research on the Internet Public Opinion after Emergency Occurrence Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：袁国平[1] 许晓兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《情报科学》2015年第10期52-56,共5页Information Science

摘　　要：利用系统动力学进行建模,对突发事件后不实信息传播引起网络舆情的子系统进行分析,绘制因果回路图和存量流量图模型。采用Vensim PLE软件对模型进行仿真,分析了事件公共度、事件敏感度、网民质疑度、政府公信力四个方面对网络舆情热度的影响,对网络舆情态势的引导和控制给出了对策建议,对于突发事件后网络舆论引导工作提供了管理思路。This paper built a dynamic model by system dynamics method and analyzed the subsystem ofInternet public opinion which caused by false information spreading after Emergency Occurrence, anddrawing causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram model. Using Vensim PLE software, we then stimulat-ed the model and analyzed the influence about the publicity of the crisis, the sensitivity of crisis, the querydegree of the crisis and the credibility of the government. This research concludes some strategies and sug-gestions for guiding and controlling the Internet public opinion and provides management ideas for manag-ers.

关 键 词：系统动力学 突发事件 网络舆论 VENSIM PLE 模拟仿真 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]