本轮股市大震荡的透视与反思  

In-depth Observation and Reflection on this round Stock Market Crash

作　　者：贾康[1,2] 苏京春[1] 

机构地区：[1]财政部财政科学研究所 [2]华夏新供给经济学研究院

出　　处：《全球化》2015年第9期28-38,共11页Globalization

摘　　要：针对前段我国A股市场在短期内大盘经历暴涨、暴跌、保卫战等一系列震荡,本文从现象、原因、后果和对策四个层面对本轮"股灾"进行透视与反思。大震荡之初,所称的"国家牛市",实质上等同于政府公权发力的"人造牛市",在基本面支撑不足情况下,实际表现为"癫躁猴市",后速成熊市,逼使政府无奈救市。相关原因,至少源自行为非理性、大规模融配资、资本市场变化、资金池容量既定、市场引导信号紊乱等五个方面,而其结果也至少包括毁掉一批"中产阶级"、中等收入发展阶段负面效应激荡、实体经济受创、催化市场与政治风险、政府干预系统多维脆弱性等五个方面的负面效应。本文特别强调从认识股市基本功能和市场规律出发,理性认识和把握我国的股市发展与制度建设,建议从以健康企业培育"长期慢牛"、化解机制性扭曲、对冲非理性、尊重市场逻辑优化游戏规则等四个方面进行制度与政策优化。Regarding with a series of fluctuation of skyrocketing,slump,and defending war of China's A-share market in the short term,this paper conducts in-depth observation and reflection on this round stock market crash from four aspects including the phenomenon,causes,consequences and countermeasures.The alleged 'national Bull' at the beginning of the sharp volatility,is essentially equivalent to the 'artificial bull' made by public right of government,with the actual performance of 'impatient epilepsy monkey market' for the lack of fundamental support,and rapidly turned out to be bear market,which forced the government to take bailout measures.Related causes can be presented at least as following five areas:the non-rational behavior,large-scale financing and fintheircing,changes in capital markets,established capital pool capacity,market leading signals' disorder,And the results also include at least five aspects such as destroying od a group of 'middle class',negative effects' surging of Middle- income development stage,hitting of the real economy,the catalyzing of the market and political risks,the vulnerability of multidimensional government intervention system.This paper,with particular emphasis on the understanding of the basic functions of the stock market and market discipline departure,holds that we should rationally recognize and grasp the development of China's stock market and system construction,and optimize the institutions and policies from the four aspects:cultivating 'long-term slow bull' with health enterprises,resolving mechanism's distortions,hedging irration,respecting for the market logic and optimizing game rules.

关 键 词：股市震荡 原因 结果 对策建议 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]