南方洪涝灾害综合风险评估  

Integrated risk assessment of flood disasters in southern China

作　　者：温泉沛[1,2] 霍治国[1] 周月华[2] 车钦[3] 肖晶晶[4] 黄大鹏[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074 [3]武汉中心气象台,武汉430074 [4]浙江省气候中心,杭州310017 [5]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2015年第10期2900-2906,共7页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD20B02);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB430206);国家自然科学基金项目(41101517)资助

摘　　要：利用中国南方地区12个省(市)2004—2012年的洪涝灾情资料,在综合表征洪涝灾情特点的基础上,选取具有可比性的受灾面积比重、受灾人口比重和直接经济损失比重等相对灾情指标,剔除耕地复种、人口变化、物价上涨和地域尺度限制等因素的影响,通过灰色关联法、正态信息扩散法,构建洪涝灾害综合相对灾情指数及其风险估算模型,对南方地区洪涝灾害的综合风险进行了研究。结果表明:综合相对灾情指数能较好反映不同省份每年受灾的差异情况,各省(市)的综合相对灾情指数与实际灾情的相关系数均达0.7以上(P<0.05);洪涝灾害主要为中灾和小灾,江西、湖北、四川、重庆发生大灾的可能性较大,福建、湖南、广西和安徽次之,广东、云南、江苏和浙江可能性较小;在排除热带气旋带来的洪涝灾害影响下,洪涝灾害综合相对灾情风险分布特征为内陆地区高于沿海地区,内陆地区中湖北的风险最高,沿海地区中江苏最低。本研究结果解决了区域间综合相对灾情等级的风险量化及可比性问题,可为区域防洪救灾对策措施以及洪涝灾害保险政策制定提供科学依据。Based on the data of meteorological disaster losses of flood disasters in 12 southern China provinces （municipalities） during 2004-2012, the proportions of the affected area, the af- fected population and direct economic losses were derived to develop an integrated index of rela- tive flood disaster and flood risk assessment model to assess the flood risk in southern China using grey association and normal information diffusion methods. The three indicators above-mentioned eliminated the effect of multiple cropping, population dynamics, rising prices and regional scale restriction. Results showed that the integrated index of relative flood disaster could reveal the vari- ation of flood damage in different provinces of southern China for each year, and the coefficients of correlation between the integrated index of relative flood disaster and the actual flood damage in each province were above 0.7 （P〈0.05）. Most of flood disasters were small- and medium-scale ones. The occurrence probabilities of large-scale disaster in Jiangxi, Hubei, Sichuan and Chongqing were much bigger than those in other provinces. By excluding the influence of tropical cyclone-induced flood disasters, the value of the integrated relative flood risk was higher in interior areas than in coastal areas. Flood risk in Hubei Province was the highest in interior areas and the risk in Jiangsu Province was the lowest in coastal areas. This study solved the problems in risk quantification and the comparability of integrated relative disaster grades in different regions,and provided a scientific basis for prevention countermeasures and insurance policy-making of re- gional flood disasters.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 综合相对灾情指数 风险评估 正态信息扩散 中国南方地区 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]