三峡库区物流与区域经济增长关系的实证研究——以重庆市万州区为例  

The Empirical Research on the Relationship between Regional Logistics and Regional Economic Growth in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region——Take the Wan Zhou District as an Example

作　　者：黄磊[1] 蔡礼辉 兰秀娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心 [2]重庆工商大学经济学院

出　　处：《广西经济管理干部学院学报》2015年第3期92-97,共6页Journal of GuangXi Cadres College of Economic and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目"三峡库区独特地理单元‘环境-经济-社会’发展变化研究"(11&ZD161)

摘　　要：运用平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,以三峡库区典型地区重庆市万州区为例,基于万州区1999~2014年度相关数据,对万州区物流与区域经济增长之间的关系分阶段进行实证研究。结果表明,万州区物流与区域经济增长之间存在长期协整关系,短期和长期物流与区域经济增长不存在格兰杰因果关系,中期物流与区域经济增长存在格兰杰因果关系,物流与区域经济增长能够相互促进,中长期只存在货运量对物流的单向格兰杰因果关系,物流可以推动区域经济增长,而区域经济增长对物流发展没有明显的拉动作用。Based on the relative data in Wan Zhou District from 1999 to 2014, this paper made empirical research on the relationship between regional logistics and regional economic growth in different stages by using ADF Test, Co-Integration Test and Granger Causality Test and taking the typical area of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, Wan Zhou District as an example. The results suggested that there exists co-Integration relationship in long term between regional logistics and regional economic growth in Wan Zhou District, there doesn’t Granger causality between them in the short run and long run, there exists two-way Granger causality between them in the middle run, they can promote mutually, there exists one-way Granger causality between them in the mid-long run, only regional logistics can promote regional economic growth and reginal economic growth can’t pull the regional logistics on the on the contrary apparently.

关 键 词：物流 经济增长 协整检验 格兰杰因果检验 

分 类 号：F259.22[经济管理—国民经济] F127