两种算法在超短期风速预测的对比分析  

Comparison and Analysis of Two Algorithms in Ultra-short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

作　　者：唐伟[1] 陶友传 董晔弘 

机构地区：[1]武汉数字工程研究所,武汉430205 [2]国家海上风力发电工程技术研究中心,重庆401122

出　　处：《计算机与数字工程》2015年第9期1553-1556,1688,共5页Computer & Digital Engineering

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(编号:2009BAA22B02)资助

摘　　要：超短期风速预测有助于实现风力发电机组的运行调度,提高风力发电机组输出电能的电能质量。通过Matlab搭建基于机组运行历史风速对后续风速进行预测的模型,对比分析了灰色算法、改进最小二乘拟合算法在2s超短期风速预测的相对误差。将大量风电场实测数据引入该模型进行验证分析,通过理论和实际的分析的结果表明,采用改进一次最小二乘拟合算法更适合用于风力发电机组的超短期风速预测。Ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting is helpful to recognize and operate the wind turbine and improve the quality of wind turbine＇s output power of electricity. With the help of Matlab, the model of wind speed forecasting based on the wind turbine＇s history wind speed data are built. Then the relative error between grey algorithm and improved least- squares fitting method within 2 seconds in ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting is contrasted and analysed. A large num- ber of measurement data is used to validate the models. The analysis of theory and practical results show that using the im- proved least-squares fitting method is more suitable for short-term wind speed forecasting of wind turbine.

关 键 词：风力发电机组 灰色算法 超短期风速预测 改进最小二乘拟合 电网友好性 

分 类 号：TP802.2[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]