梯度发展模式下我国水资源利用效率评价  

Evaluation of water resources utilization efficiency in China under gradient development

作　　者：陈午[1] 许新宜[1] 王红瑞[1] 崔胜玉 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2015年第9期29-38,共10页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279006);国家科技支撑计划(2013BAB05B04)

摘　　要：水资源利用效率问题是水资源研究领域的热点之一。本文通过构建水资源利用效率评价指标体系,利用Spearman检验淘汰不通过一致性检验的专家指标排序,并运用循环修正的思路统一指标重要程度排序,最后通过相邻两个指标的标准差比值确定指标间的重要性比率,建立了基于改进序关系法的水资源利用效率评价模型,并对我国31个省级行政区的水资源利用效率进行评估,结果表明我国水资源利用效率水平呈现出西低东高的分布特征;进一步运用Moran’s I指数对梯度发展模式下中国水资源利用效率的全域和局部空间特点进行分析,研究发现我国水资源利用效率存在较强的空间相关性,多数省级行政区表现为HH和LL型相关;实证分析结果表明,我国水资源利用效率呈现出明显的梯度发展特征,对此,建议采取一系列政策措施来缩小这种区域梯度差异情况。Water resources utilization efficiency is one of the key issues in water resources study. This paper presents the development of an evaluation model of water resources utilization efficiency using a method of improved rank correlation analysis. This model uses an evaluation index system constructed specifically for China, consistency test for selecting index ranks suggested by experts to eliminate the orders that fail the test and the idea of circular revision, to unify the index ranks of importance. It determines the relative importance of two adjacent indexes according to the ratios of their standard deviations. The model has been applied to the efficiency evaluations for 31 provincial administrative districts of China. The results indicate that the utilization efficiency is lower in the western regions and higher in the eastern regions. We have used the Moran＇s I index to examine the global and local spatial distributions of the utilization efficiency in China under gradient development. This reveals that the utilization efficiency has strong spatial dependence and most of the districts are characterized by a HH, or LL, type. Thus, we conclude that China＇s existing water resources utilization efficiency is featured with obvious gradient development, and suggest that systematic policies and measures should be taken to reduce the regional differences.

关 键 词：水资源 利用效率 改进序关系法 梯度发展 空间相关性 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]