北京地区Logistic临界雨量模型的建立  

The Logistic Critical Rainfall Model Establishment of Beijing Area

作　　者：王海芝[1] 任凯珍[1] 冒建[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市地质研究所,北京100120

出　　处：《城市地质》2015年第3期59-61,共3页Urban Geology

摘　　要：临界雨量的确定是暴雨型泥石流预警预报的基础。本文采用了统计学的方法,选取前期有效雨量与当日激发雨量联合,建立了logistic临界雨量模型。该模型既考虑了前期有效雨量的贡献,又明确界定了致灾概率,兼顾了临界雨量是变量这一特点,与现场安装的雨量站获取的现场实时传输雨量能够有效结合,是目前适用于泥石流预警预报的方法。The estimation about critical rainfall is the foundation to forecast mudflow triggered by heavy rainfall. This study establishes a new logistic model of critical rainfall based on the coupled statistic analysis on the effective and intraday triggering precipitation. This model involves in the contribution of effective precipitation, the probability of mudfiow occurrence, and the variations of the critical rainfall. In addition, this model is compatible with the data of real-time monitoring precipitation. All these characteristics show this model is a reliable method for mudflow forecast.

关 键 词：临界雨量 模型 预警预报 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]