VW-UM模型在采场稳定性评价中的应用  

Application of VW-UM model in stope stability evaluation

作　　者：康虔[1] 王新民[1] 张钦礼[1] 李天正[1] 张楚旋 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2015年第7期128-134,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAB32B03);煤矿安全开采技术湖南省重点实验室开放基金资助(201203)

摘　　要：为避免地下采场稳定性常权分析时容易出现"状态失衡"的问题,将变权重理论(VW)引入其中,结合未确知测度理论(UM)建立采场稳定性VW-UM评价模型。基于对采场稳定性影响最大的14项指标,计算其未确知测度(UM)函数,运用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标常权重,再通过VW理论细化各指标权重的取值,最后根据置信度识别准则预测采场风险等级。用VW-UM模型分析新桥矿和焦家矿5个采场的稳定性,得出各采场的风险等级。实例分析表明,指标权重在常权重的基础上需根据指标值确定,这样使得分析结果的准确度比传统评价模型要高。VW theory was introduced into the stope stability analysis to avoid the ＂state out of balance＂ phenomenon appearing in constant weight evaluation frequently. By combining UM theory with VW theory, a VW-UM analysis model was built. Based on fourteen indexes affecting the stope stability greatest, uncertain measurement functions of all indicators were calculated. The constant weights of all indexes were calculated by analytic hierarchy process（AHP）. And then, the values of indexes weights were refined by VW theory. Lastly, a predictive rank of slope risks was finally achieved by using the rules of credible recognition criteria. This model was used in stopes stability analyses of Xinqiao mine and Jiaojia mine. The results showed that the indexes weights should be determined according to the indexes values and constant weights, and that accuracy of analytical results obtained by using this model were more is better than traditional evaluation models.

关 键 词：采矿 稳定性分析 变权重理论(VW) 采场 未确知测度(UM) 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TD853[矿业工程—金属矿开采]