城市经济承载力的综合评价及其时空差异研究——以我国15个副省级城市为例  

Comprehensive Evaluation and its Spatial and Temporal Differences of City Economic Carrying Capacity——A Case Study of 15 Sub-Provincial Cities

作　　者：狄乾斌[1] 韩帅帅[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,中国辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《经济地理》2015年第9期57-64,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41571127);辽宁省高等学校优秀科技人才支持计划(WR2014005)

摘　　要：以我国15个副省级城市为研究对象,运用非线性模糊综合评价法和PSR模型分别测度城市经济承载水平和承载质量。结果表明:15个副省级城市的经济承载力发展趋势在波动中上升,整体水平不高。时间上,城市间差异在波动中先扩大后减小,空间分布上,呈现沿海城市优于内地城市,南方城市优于北方城市的格局;结构演进在时间序列上表现出不断优化的趋势,且经济系统实现有效率的发展模式。总之,15个副省级城市的经济承载力水平陆续从超载进入临界可载,且时空差异较大,但在结构分析上表现出了较好的演进路径,基本符合可持续发展的要求。The scientific assessment of urban economic carrying capacity is a significant basis to assure that the level and direction of the urban economy is in a sustainable development. The comprehensive evaluation of economic carrying capacity includes carrying level evaluation and carrying quality evaluation, and the top-quality high level way of economic carrying is consistent with the sustainable development pattern. Taking 15 vice provincial cities as the research object, the carrying level and carrying quality of urban economy are measured respectively by using the nonlinear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and PSR model. The results showed that the development trend of economic carrying capacity of the 15 vice provincial cities is to increase in fluctuation while the overall level is not high. In period, the diversity of cities is fluctuate： firstly expand and then decrease; in spatial distribution, the coastal cities are better than the inland cities, and the southern cities surpass the northern cities; the structural evolution shows the the trend of the continuous optimization on the time series and the economic system has achieved an effective development model. In short, the 15 vice provincial cities＇ economic carrying capacity levels enter from overload to critical load, and the spatial and temporal difference is great. However, at the structural analysis, it shows a nice evolutionary path and is basically consistent with the requirement of sustainable development.

关 键 词：经济承载力 非线性模糊综合 时空差异 结构演进 副省级城市 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]