基于社会物理学的群体性突发事件演化及仿真——群体意见和行为的演化研究  

A Simulation Study on the Mass Emergency Evolution Based on the Social Physics——Evolution of Community Advice and Behavior

作　　者：杜蓉[1] 梁蕾[1] 王宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院危机管理研究所,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2015年第3期61-69,共9页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71101034/G0104);国家软科学基金(2013GXS4D113);黑龙江省自然科学基金(F201003);黑龙江省软科学攻关项目(GZ09D207);教育部人文社会科学青年基金(13YJCZH062)

摘　　要：为研究群体性突发事件演化的一般规律,以社会物理学理论为基础,借用万有引力定律和动能原理的思想构建了群体意见和群体行为的演化模型,并通过Netlogo仿真平台对模型进行了仿真。通过对政府处置力度、介入时间,媒体和意见领袖的权威性、影响力及介入时间等参数的调整,得出政府在群体性突发事件演化中起主要作用,媒体和意见领袖起导向作用。因此,在事件发生时,政府自身应积极选择科学的行为方式,并利用媒体和意见领袖,充分发挥其导向作用,有效控制群体性突发事件的演化态势。In order to study the general evolution law of mass emergency,a community advice and behavior evolutionary model is constructed, using the law of universal gravitation and kinetic the- ory on the basis of social physics. Simulation is conducted used the Netlog. Through adjusting the disposal power of the government, the time when to intervene and the authoritative of media and opinion leaders, influence , the time when to intervene to explore the impact of various factors,it is concluded that the government plays a main role in the evolution of mass incidents, the media and opinion leaders play a guiding role. Therefore, in the mass emergency, the government should select scientific behavior patterns actively, and use the media, opinion leaders, giving full play to the guiding role, to control the evolution of the mass emergency effectively.

关 键 词：群体性突发事件 民众 群体意见 群体行为 多主体仿真 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]