气候因素对蒋家沟泥石流输沙量的影响分析研究  

Research for the Influence of Climatic Factors on Sediment Runoff of Debris Flow in Jiangjia Ravine

作　　者：田冰[1,2] 王裕宜[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,石家庄050024 [2]河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,石家庄050024 [3]中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,成都610041

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2015年第5期218-222,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学资助项目(40671026);河北省高等学校科学技术研究青年资助项目(Q2012114);河北师范大学博士科研基金(L2008B14);河北省高校重点学科建设资助项目

摘　　要：根据云南小江流域蒋家沟泥石流1965—2007年的观测资料与会泽气象站1961—2005年的气象资料,采用相关分析法,详细分析了蒋家沟泥石流输沙量与气候因素特别是降雨的相关性。分析结果表明:蒋家沟泥石流输沙量与年降水量、年极端降水量和夏季极端降水量呈现出很好的正相关关系,分别通过了α=0.01,α=0.05的置信度检验,随着降水量以及极端强降水的增加,泥石流输沙量都表现出增加的趋势。尽管随着夏季气温的增加会影响泥石流形成的土源条件的含水量,但因为降水因素的对泥石流启动的影响要远远大于气温因素,因此在以变暖、变湿为特征的小江流域气候变化的背景下,泥石流输沙量呈现出增加的态势。Based on the observation data of debris flow in Jiangjia Ravine from 1965 to 2007 and the climatological data in Huize meteorological observation station from 1961 to 2005, the correlation between debris flow sediment runoff and climatic factor was analyzed using correlation analysis method. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between the sediment runoff of Jiangjia Gully debris flow and annual rainfall, annual extreme rainfall, and summer extreme rainfall. The correlation coefficient passed the confi- dence level （α=0.01, α=0.05 ）. The sediment runoff increased with the increase of rainfall. However, the increase in summer temperature will affect the soil moisture of the formation of debris flow. But the effect of rainfall has larger influence than the temperature. Therefore, under the background of climate change char- acterized as the warming and wetting, the sediment runoff of debris flow shows the increasing trend.

关 键 词：相关分析 泥石流 输沙量 气候变化 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学] P333.4[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]