基于自回归分布滞后模型的地面沉降预测  

Ground subsidence prediction based on autoregressive distributed lag model

作　　者：郇小龙 甄宗坤[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市建工设计研究院有限公司,上海200050 [2]苏州工业园区测绘地理信息有限公司,江苏苏州215000

出　　处：《测绘工程》2015年第9期59-61,65,共4页Engineering of Surveying and Mapping

摘　　要：地面沉降与地下水水位变化不同步,且地面下沉受自身影响较大,建立滞后作用下地面沉降预测模型,以某地区地面沉降为例进行模拟试验,并探讨模型拟合效果与预测精度。结果表明,自回归分布滞后模型的拟合效果较好,预测精度较高,可以用到地面沉降量计算中。Ground subsidence is not synchronous compared with the fluctuation of groundwater table, and greatly impacted by itself. An autoregressive distributed lag model is established to predict ground settlement. The fitting effect and prediction accuracy of the model are discussed based on a certain area of ground settlement. The results show that the autoregressive distributed lag model is well fitted with higher prediction accuracy, so the model can be applied to the field of the land subsidence.

关 键 词：自回归分布滞后模型 地面沉降 滞后作用 沉降预测 地下水水位 

分 类 号：P642.26[天文地球—工程地质学] TU196.1[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]