中国能源碳排放与GDP的关系及其动态演变机制——基于脱钩与自组织理论的实证研究  

Relationship and Evolution Mechanism of Energy Carbon Emission and GDP in China——Practical Research Based on Decoupling and Self- organization Theory

作　　者：胡渊[1] 刘桂春[1] 胡伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2015年第11期1358-1362,共5页Resource Development & Market

摘　　要：从总体特征和脱钩关系角度对我国1990—2013年能源碳排放与GDP的关系进行分析。结果表明:能源碳排放与GDP之间呈现出较强的关联性,1997—1998年我国能源碳排放与GDP处于"绝对脱钩"状态,2003—2004年处于"未脱钩"状态,其他年份处于"相对脱钩"状态。其次,根据自组织理论中的哈肯模型建立能源碳排放与GDP的演化模型,对能源碳排放与GDP进行预测。结果表明,我国到2020年单位GDP的能源碳排放比2005年下降了45.18%;2015—2020年我国能源碳排放年均增长率为3.17%,同时GDP年均增长6.44%,我国能源碳排放与GDP处于"相对脱钩"状态。第三,构建势函数来模拟能源碳排放与GDP系统的演化过程,并分析序参量和控制参数,表明能源碳排放是序参量,它主导着GDP的发展变化和系统的演化过程;控制参数的变化也会引起势函数的变化,从而影响系统的调整与演化。Firstly, this paper analyzed the relationship between energy carbon emissions and GDP from 1990 to 2013, from the general characteristics and decoupling relationship. The results suggested： ①There was a strong correlation between energy carbon emissions and GDP. ②From 1997 to 1998,energy carbon emissions and GDP were in ＂absolute decoupling＂. From 2003 to 2004, they were in ＂nondecoupling＂, other years were in ＂relative decoupling＂. Secondly, based on the Haken model of selforganization, the evolution model of energy carbon emissions and GDP was built, then forecasted the growth of energy carbon emissions and GDP. The results showed that China＇s energy carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 2020 was dropped by 45.18 % than that in 2005.③From 2015 to 2020,its energy carbon emissions increased by an annual average of 3.17 % , with real GDP growth by an annual average of 6.44 % , energy carbon emissions and GDP were in ＂relative decoupling＂. Finally, trend function of the evolution was constructed to simulate the evolution process of energy carbon emissions and GDP system, and to analyze the order parameter and control variables. The authors found that the energy carbon emissions was the order parameter in the evolution of energy carbon emissions and GDP system, and it domi- nated the development of GDP and the evolution process of the system. The change of control parameters could also led to changes in trend function, thus affecting the adjustment and evolution of the system.

关 键 词：能源碳排放 GDP 脱钩 哈肯模型 演化机制 序参量 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]