广州市煤炭需求预测及能源安全保障研究  

Study on coal demands prediction and energy safety protection of Guangzhou City

作　　者：殷腾飞[1] 缪谨励[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京100037 [3]国土资源部地质信息技术重点实验室,北京100037

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2015年第8期29-34,共6页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：2015年中国矿业大学(北京)博士研究生拔尖创新人才培育基金项目(00-800015Z6A3)

摘　　要：采用近13年的统计数据,参考已有的研究成果,以广州市地区生产总值的增长率、煤炭占一次能源消费的比重、第二产业占总产值的比重3个自变量构建广州市煤炭需求预测GM(0,4)模型。经过检验模型合格,用模型对未来5年广州市煤炭需求量进行了预测。分析了影响煤炭有效供给的因素,在我国煤炭供应新格局的背景下,提出了3条有效供给广州市煤炭需求的建议,以保障广州市能源消费安全,对类似的煤炭资源稀缺型城市能源安全保障提供参考。With the statistic data of the passed 13 years, the references of the available research achievements and the three independent variables including the increased rate of Guangzhou GDP, proportion of coal in primary energy consumption and proportion of the secondary industry in the GDP, a Guangzhou coal demands prediction GM（0.4） model was established. With the qualification of the model passed, the model was applied to make the prediction on the late five year coal demands of Guangzhou. The paper analyzed the factors affected to the effective supply of the coal. Under the background of the new coal supply setup in China, three proposals to effectively supply the coal demands in Guangzhou in order to ensure the energy consumption safety in Guangzhou and could provide the references to the energy safety protection in similar coal resources lacking type city.

关 键 词：广州市 经济 煤炭需求 灰色模型 有效供给 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]