湖南省常德市近50年极端气温变化特征及周期  

Variation characteristics of extreme temperature and cycle of Changde in the past five decades

作　　者：周学锋[1] 赵景波[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710062 [2]中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710061

出　　处：《地球环境学报》2015年第2期87-97,共11页Journal of Earth Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40672108);黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLLQG0606)

摘　　要：利用1963—2012年湖南省常德市逐日气温观测资料,运用线性拟合、主成分分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet复数小波等方法对WMO发布的10种极端气温指数进行了计算和分析。结果表明常德地区近50年来,极端最高气温、极端最低气温都呈上升趋势,冰日、霜日、冷夜、冷日数量呈下降趋势,夏日、热夜、暖夜、暖日数量呈上升趋势。除冰日天数未出现突变外,各极端气温指标的突变基本发生在1980年代到1990年代末。极端最高气温、极端最低气温、夏日、热夜、霜目、暖夜、冷日、冷夜、暖日都存在27 a左右的周期,冰日存在29 a左右的周期。总体来说,近50年来,常德地区极端天气热指数呈上升趋势,极端天气冷指数呈下降趋势,发生极端天气现象的可能性增加。由此可能造成夏季高温干旱和暖冬等灾害,需要及时采取预防措施,防止高温干旱和暖冬等情况对工农业生产和居民生活带来负面影响。Based on daily temperature data in Changde of Hunan Province from 1963 to 2012, the indices of ten kinds of extreme temperature published by WMO were calculated and analyzed using linear regression, principal component analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test and the plural Morlet wavelet. We found that in the past 50 years, the extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature increased. The occurrence of ice days, frost days, cold nights and cold days decreased, while the occurrence of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights and warm days increased. In addition to the ice days, the mutation of other extreme temperature indices occurred in the 1980＇s to 1990＇s. The extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature, numbers of summer days, tropical nights, frost days, warm nights, cold days, cold nights, warm days all had cycles of 27 years; and the number of ice days had a cycle of 29 years. Overall, in the past 50 years, extreme warm indices increased, and extreme cold indices decreased in Changde. The possibility of occurrence of extreme weather phenomena increased, which might cause drought and high temperature in summer and warm winter. Preventive measures should be taken to protect the industrial and agricultural production and people＇s life from negative effects.

关 键 词：常德市 极端气温 变化趋势 气温突变 周期规律 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]