利用典型曲线拟合的递减常数预测油气藏的可采储量  

Using decline constants from matching type curve to predict recoverable reserves of oil and gas reservoirs

作　　者：陈元千[1] 李剑[1] 李云波[1] 毕海滨[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国海上油气》2015年第5期49-54,共6页China Offshore Oil and Gas

摘　　要：评估油气藏可采储量的动态方法包括物质平衡法、压降法、产量递减法、预测模型法和水驱曲线法,其中产量递减法是最为有效、实用的方法,其应用不受储集类型、驱动类型和开发方式的限制,只要油气藏开发已经进入递减阶段,即可有效地进行经济和技术可采储量的预测。产量递减法又可分为累加法和截距除以斜率法。前者是将预测的年产量相加,直到经济极限年产量为止,即可得到经济可采储量;后者是回归产量与总累积产量直线关系,求得直线的截距和斜率,再由截距除以斜率得到经济可采储量和技术可采储量。本文提出了利用典型曲线拟合先确定递减参数(n、Qi和Di),再预测油气藏的经济和技术可采储量的方法。国外大型多级压裂页岩气井的应用表明,本文方法与已有的截距除以斜率法预测结果基本相同,说明实用有效,且简单可行。Dynamic methods to evaluate reservoir recoverable reserves include material balance method, pres- sure drop method, production decline method, forecast model method and water drive curve method, in which the production decline method is the most effective and practical one. Application of production decline is not restricted by reservoir types, drive types and development schemes, and the method can effectively predict the economic and technical recoverable reserves as long as the reservoir development enters the decline stage. Pro- duction decline method is divided into sum method and intercept divided by slope method. The former method obtains economic recoverable reserves by summing up the predicted annual production until it approaches to e- conomic limit production. The latter method gets economic and technical recoverable reserves through the in- tercept divided by the slope, which are gotten from the linear relationship between regressed production and cumulative production. In this paper, the method of determining decline constants（n. Qi and Di）by matching type curve to predict reservoir economic and technical recoverable reserves was proposed. Application in large- scale multistage fractured shale gas wells abroad shows that the prediction results are consistent with that of the existing intercept divided by slope method, showing the practicality and effectivity.

关 键 词：产量递减 典型曲线 拟合 预测 可采储量 

分 类 号：TE328[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]