大数据时代对地震监测预报问题的思考  

Thinking of earthquake monitoring and prediction at the age of big data

作　　者：张晁军[1] 陈会忠[2] 李卫东[1] 许洪华[1] 彭远黔[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [2]中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京100036 [3]河北省地震局,石家庄050021

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2015年第4期1561-1568,共8页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金："科技支撑项目--地震科学数据共享"项目(503130108)资助

摘　　要：大数据是当今的热点,是各种信息技术和互联网发展到现今阶段的一种表象或特征,正逐步渗入我们的日常生活和工作.大数据技术的战略意义不在于掌握庞大的数据信息,而在于对数据的深度挖掘.通过丰富的时空动态数据分析,大数据为我们提供了理解事物间相互作用的巨大可能性.因此,大数据蕴含着巨大生产力,将对全球人类生活、科技、经济、文化及政治发展带来深远影响,许多国家已经开始对大数据应用研究做出了重大部署.大数据的核心是积累数据、分析数据、应用数据.大数据案例表明,通过提高人们自己的特殊技能和洞察力,大数据分析具有预测事物发展趋势、改变传统观念和发现新事物的功能,并有助于我们从错误信息中挖掘有价值信息.大数据改变着人类探索世界的传统观念和方法,尤其是通过了解模型的优点和局限性,大数据可以使数据产生知识.地震观测数据是大数据.地震是地球的诸多现象之一,地球又是一个多圈层的系统.随着人类获取数据、使用数据能力的重大突破和进展,数据当中隐藏的规律和趋势将不断被挖掘利用,给探索地球各种现象和减轻自然灾害,特别是地震机理,带来新的途径.1)大数据让地震预测不再热衷于寻找因果关系,大数据时代预测将以密集观测和多样本分析为基础,极有可能发现哪些地震前兆与地震有真正的关系,因此,在大数据的背景下,相关关系会促进地震预测水平,提高地震预测的可靠性;2)大数据促进部门间、地区间、国际间地震数据融合,加速数据实时分析,提升短临预测价值;3)大数据时代更需要高密度综合观测,让我们看到更多以前无法被关注到的细节,提高我们的洞察力;4)大数据改变地震监测预报方式方法,以往的有些数据模型、地震参数计算方法、前兆异常认识需重新修正,从而获得更精准的答案.然而,大�Big data is a hot point at present.And it is a kind of representation or features of the development of a variety of information technology and Internet at the present stage.It is gradually infiltrated into our daily life and work.The strategic significance of big data technology is not the master of huge data information rather than data mining.Big data offer enormous possibilities for understanding interactions between things,with rich spatial and temporal dynamics,and for detecting complex interactions and nonlinear among variables.Therefore,big data contains a huge productivity and will have a far-reaching effect on the global human life,science and technology,economic,cultural and political development.Many countries have begun to make a major deployment of large data application.The core of big data is accumulating data,analyzing data,and applying data.The cases of big data show that big data analysis can make a prediction of developing trend,and change traditional ideas and discover something new,and help us mining valuable information from error information by improving people＇s the special skills and insight themselves.Big data is changing the traditional concepts and methods of human＇s exploring the world,especially through understanding the advantages and limitations of the models,big data can make the data generated knowledge.Seismic observation data is big one.Earthquake is one of the many phenomena of earth itself,and the earth also is a system of multiple spheres.Along with a major breakthrough of capacity and progress of the human＇s using the data and getting data,laws and trends hidden in data will continually be mined. This will bring new ways to exploring various phenomena on the earth and preventing and mitigating natural disasters,especially studying earthquake mechanism.First of all,at big data age,earthquake prediction is no longer interested in finding the causal relationship.The prediction will be based on intensive observation and much more sample analysis,the real relationship bet

关 键 词：大数据 地震监测预报 数据挖掘 相关分析 决策 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]