基于最大熵模型的蓝莓潜在分布区预测  

Prediction of Potential Distribution of Blueberry Based on Maximum Entropy Model

作　　者：崔晋亮 卫海燕[1] 桑满杰 朱俐南 顾蔚[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062 [2]陕西师范大学西北濒危药材资源开发国家工程实验室,陕西西安710062 [3]陕西师范大学生命科学学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《山东农业科学》2015年第9期36-41,45,共7页Shandong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31070293);国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAI06A13-06);陕西省科学技术研究发展计划项目(2014K14-01-02)

摘　　要：基于783个蓝莓地理分布记录和21个环境因子,通过最大熵模型模拟目前蓝莓在全球的潜在地理分布,并基于气候因子模拟了蓝莓过去Last Glacial Maximum和Mid-Holocene时期以及未来21世纪50年代的潜在地理分布。结果表明:降水量变异系数、最干季度降水量、表层土壤酸碱度、表层土壤有机碳含量和海拔是影响蓝莓潜在分布的主导环境因子。其中,气候因子对蓝莓潜在分布的影响大于土壤和地形,气候因子中降水量对其潜在分布的影响大于温度。目前全球蓝莓主要分布在北美东部、西欧、巴尔干半岛、中国东北和华南、日本等地区,适宜生境面积大于过去和未来。The potential geographic distribution of blueberry in the world under the current conditions was simulated with the maximum entropy model based on 783 distribution records and 21 environmental fac-tors.The potential geographical distribution of blueberry in the Last Glacial Maximum,Mid -Holocene period and the future of 2050s were simulated based on the climatic factors.The results showed that the variation co-efficient of precipitation,precipitation of the driest quarter,pH value and organic carbon content of surface soil and altitude were the dominant environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of blueberry.A-mong them,the impact of climatic factors on the potential distribution of blueberry was more than that of soil and topography,and that of rainfall was greater than that of temperature.The current global distribution of blueberry were mainly in the eastern North America,the Western Europe,the Balkans,the Northeast and South China,Japan and other regions,and the suitable habitat area was larger than that in the past and future.

关 键 词：蓝莓 气候变化 最大熵模型 潜在地理分布 

分 类 号：S126[农业科学—农业基础科学] S663.2