Prediction method of highway pavement rutting based on the grey theory  

基于灰色理论的高速公路路面车辙预测方法（英文）

作　　者：周岚[1] 倪富健[1] 赵岩荆[2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,南京210096 [2]东南大学土木工程学院,南京210096

出　　处：《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》2015年第3期396-400,共5页东南大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：The Major Scientific and Technological Special Project of Jiangsu Provincial Communications Department(No.2011Y/02-G1)

摘　　要：In order to make a scientific pavement maintenance decision, a grey-theory-based prediction methodological framework is proposed to predict pavement performance. Based on the field pavement rutting data,analysis of variance （ANOVA）was first used to study the influence of different factors on pavement rutting. Cluster analysis was then employed to investigate the rutting development trend.Based on the clustering results,the grey theory was applied to build pavement rutting models for each cluster, which can effectively reduce the complexity of the predictive model.The results show that axial load and asphalt binder type play important roles in rutting development.The prediction model is capable of capturing the uncertainty in the pavement performance prediction process and can meet the requirements of highway pavement maintenance,and,therefore,has a wide application prospects.为了制定科学的路面养护决策,提出了一种基于灰色理论的路面性能预测方法.基于路面车辙检测数据,采用方差分析方法研究不同因素对车辙的影响;利用聚类分析方法研究路面车辙发展规律;基于聚类结果,采用灰色理论分类建立了路面车辙灰色预测模型,有效降低了模型的复杂程度.研究结果表明,轴载和沥青类型对车辙的发展影响最大.所提预测模型精度较高,具有一定的实用价值,能满足高速公路路面养护工程要求,并能较好地解决路面性能预测中的不确定性.

关 键 词：prediction method grey theory cluster analysis analysis of variance pavement rutting 

分 类 号：U416.217[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]