伊核全面协议的影响评估  

Assessing the Impact of the Iran Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement

作　　者：李绍先[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学中国阿拉伯研究院

出　　处：《西亚非洲》2015年第5期4-18,共15页West Asia and Africa

摘　　要：2015年7月14日,伊核全面协议签署,长达12年的伊核谈判"终成正果"。伊核全面协议的达成是伊朗和美国双方政策相向而行的产物,其中最重要、最实质性的变量因素是美国改变了对伊朗的政策。作为联合国常任理事国之一,中国一直积极参与伊核问题的政治解决,在伊核谈判中发挥了独特作用。伊朗得以保留一定的民用核能力,与伊核相关的国际制裁有望被取消,伊朗从中收获颇丰。美国则有利于其在中东脱困,以总体服务于加快美国全球战略重心东移的战略。与此同时,中东地缘政治格局变化,伊朗地区大国地位得到巩固且可望进一步提升。在"后伊核协议时代",中国与伊朗关系面临新的发展机遇,中资企业需淡定应对跨国公司在伊朗市场展开的激烈竞争。The signing of the Iran Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement on July 14 2015 markes the 12 - year - long Iran nuclear talks finally accompish some right fruits. The reachment of the argeement is the outcome of correct policy orientations of both Iran and the United States, of which, the most important and essiencial variable is the adjustment of U.S. policy towards Iran. China played a unique role in the nuclear talks. Iran get the abundant benefits out of the agreement in that Iran may retain certain nuclaer capacity of civilian use, and international sanctions on its nuclear -related programmes are expected to be removed as well. The comprehensive agreement may help U.S. to get rid of the dilemma in the Middle East, and generally is beneficial for it to quicken its steps in the Eastward transfer of golal strategic gravity. Meanwhile, in the changing geoplitical pattern of the Middle East, Iran＇ s regional power status is consolidated and expected to be furthur elevated. In a post - Iran nuclear agreement era, China - Iran relations face new opportunities. However, Chinese enterprises should take it easy in dealing with intense international competitions among trans -national companies for Iran＇s markets.

关 键 词：伊核谈判 《全面联合行动计划》 中东地缘政治 美国 中伊关系 

分 类 号：D815.2[政治法律—国际关系]