我国矿产资源型产业技术创新能力分布的动态演进研究——基于Kernel密度和马尔可夫链分析  

Study on Dynamic Evolution of Technological Innovation Capability Distribution about China's Mineral Resources Industry——Based on Kernel Density and Markov Chain Analysis

作　　者：闫军印[1] 侯孟阳 

机构地区：[1]石家庄经济学院研究生学院,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2015年第19期88-93,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"基于循环经济的矿产资源产业链技术发展路经研究"(11BJY057);河北省高校百名优秀创新人才支持计划项目"河北省经济增长演进的资源规划战略研究"(BR2-124);河北省社科基金项目"河北省环首都经济圈矿产资源生态化开发技术体系研究"(HB11YJ065);石家庄经济学院学生科技基金重点项目"矿产资源产业链技术创新能力演变态势及提升路径研究"(KAG201402)

摘　　要：依据矿产资源型产业1996-2012年技术创新指标的面板数据,运用非参数Kernel密度估计及马尔可夫链分析模型,对我国矿产资源型产业技术创新能力的分布及发展演变趋势进行研究,研究结果表明,我国矿产资源型产业技术创新能力经历了"单峰——双峰——单峰"的演变过程,不同产业之间技术创新能力发展速度存在不平衡性,产业链后续产业对上游产业技术进步具有明显的拉动效应,矿产资源型产业技术创新能力表现出向高水平状态转移的收敛性。According to the panel data of technology innovation indexes of the 5 categories minerals of 10 mineral resources industries in 1996 -2012, based on the comprehensive index of industrial technological innovation capacity, we used the nonparametric Kernel density estimation method and the Markov chain analysis model to study the distribution and develop- ment trend of the mineral resources industry technological innovation capability in China, and the results showed that ： ① The evolution of mineral resources industry technological innovation capability in China has experienced ＂peak→bimodal→ peak＂, and the level of industry technological innovation capacity has been increased on the whole; ②Technolngical inno- vation capability between different industries existed unbalanced development velocity, and the technological innovation ca- pability in energy mineral resources industry was significantly higher than the ferrous metal, nonferrous metal and nonmetal resources industry ; ③With the continuous extension of the industry chain, the development velocity of industry technologi- cal innovation was faster, following industry on the quality and the demand on technical content of raw materials in continu- ous improvement, which has obvious pull effect to the related industry technological progress ; ④Mter a long process of de- velopment and accumulation, mineral resources industry technological innovation capability showed convergence to the high - level state transition ; ⑤The low levels of resources industry need to firmly seize the opportunity of economic development pattern transformation, making full use of the following industry technological progress anti - driving mechanism, increasing investment in technology innovation, strengthening the management of technology innovation, accelerating the pace of tech- nological progress, which is the reality path to achieve industrial resource efficiency, scale efficiency, technical efficiency and environmental efficiency of coordinated development.

关 键 词：矿产资源型产业 技术创新能力 Kernel密度估计 马尔可夫链分析 

分 类 号：F426.1[经济管理—产业经济]