突发事件演化的耗散结构判断模型研究  

Research on Judgment Model of Dissipative Structure for Emergency Events Evolution in Chemical Industrial Zone

作　　者：陈晨[1] 俞政[1] 张新梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东),山东青岛266580

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2015年第19期216-219,共4页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"化工园区事故情景演化重构及应急决策研究"(71403293);国家自然科学基金项目"化工园区事故随机演化特性及整体安全性优化研究"(51104174);黄岛区重点科技发展计划项目"化工园区事故情景演化及应急决策研究"(2014-1-54);2015年度青岛市社会科学规划项目"青岛市石化园区突发事件应急管理研究"(2015-32)

摘　　要：运用熵和耗散结构对突发事件演化进行分析,明确突发事件演化过程符合耗散结构非线性及动态变化的特性,据此对经典布鲁塞尔器(Brusselator)模型进行转义处理,建立突发事件演化的耗散结构判断模型。依据模型构建正负熵指标体系,判断事件演化的受控性是否满足耗散结构的有序平衡状态。最后依据事故资料,对2013年某输油管道泄漏事故进行分析,分析结果与实际事故的发展过程具有良好的吻合性,可为突发事件的应急决策提供有益的借鉴。Many major hazardous installations are gathered in chemical industry zone, hence expansion accident is likely to occur and serious consequences may be brought. Characteristics of the occurrence, expansion and evolution of emergency e- vents in chemical industry park were analyzed deeply and it indicates that the evolution process has the same characteristics with the dissipative structures in nonlinear interactions and dynamics. Based on mechanism analysis of dissipative structure to emergency events evolution, the Brusselator model used to express the evolution process of emergency event in chemical industry zone was established by the variables translation as judgment model of dissipative structure. According to the posi- tive and negative entropy index system, the controllability of evolution process can be determined whether it meets the or- dered equilibrium of dissipative structures or not. Based on reported data of an oil pipeline leak accident in 2013, the evo- lution process was analyzed by the model proposed in the paper, and the conclusion has good compliance with the real esca- lation process. The research conclusion will provide the useful lessons to the emergency decision -making in chemical in- dustry zone.

关 键 词：突发事件 耗散结构 布鲁塞尔器模型 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]