中国-东盟的能源消费与CO2排放及其对该区域发展的影响  

Energy Consumption and CO_2 Emissions in China and ASEAN and Associated Impacts on China-ASEAN Regional Development

作　　者：李正希 卢苇[2] 曹聪[2] 杨林[2] 

机构地区：[1]广州碳排放权交易所,广东广州510260 [2]广西大学化学学化工学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2015年第19期240-244,250,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国-东盟能效标准和标识的对比分析及一致化研究”10YJCZH101)

摘　　要：以美国和欧盟为标尺,分析中国和东盟在1990—2012年间的能源消费和CO2排放情景,并利用ARIMA模型预测2040年中国与东盟的能源消费量和CO2排放量。根据分析和预测结果提出了一些关于中国—东盟区域发展的建议。考虑到中国与东盟国家的现实国情,未来中国—东盟自贸区的发展应致力于提高能源效率,发展清洁能源,走注重实体经济的低碳发展道路;并以"携手建设中国—东盟命运共同体"为契机,加强该区域在能源与环境领域的合作,共同应对挑战。Referring to those scenarios in US and EU, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China and the ASEAN in 1990 - 2012 are analyzed. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China and ASEAN in 2040 are forecasted by the ARIMA model. Some propesals on China - ASEAN regional development are brought forward according to the scenario analyses and forecasted re- suits. Owing to the actual conditions of China and ASEAN members, the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area should focus on energy efficiency and clean energy except for exploring a new low - carbon road of real economy in the future. Furthermore, the develop- ment of the China - ASEAN Destiny Community hand in hand provides a chance to enhance regional cooperation in energy and environment field, which would make China and the ASEAN cope with challenges as a union.

关 键 词：中国-东盟区域发展 能源消费 CO2排放 ARIMA预测 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] X24[经济管理—产业经济]