人民币实际有效汇率对我国FDI的影响——基于邹突变点的检验  

The Study of the Effect of Real Effective RMB Exchange Rate on China's FDI——A Test Based on Chow Breakpoint

作　　者：饶菁伟 彭家生[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学继续教育学院 [2]云南财经大学继续教育学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2015年第10期36-45,共10页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：本文以我国汇率改革政策实施的2005年7月21日为时间分界点,采用邹突变点检验方法实证检验我国汇改政策对人民币实际有效汇率与我国FDI的关系是否产生影响,并结合协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等静态研究方法和脉冲响应分析等动态研究方法研究它们之间的均衡、因果关系及影响程度。结果表明:汇改政策确实对汇率与FDI的关系产生了影响;人民币实际有效汇率与FDI存在长期稳定的均衡关系;汇改前后,人民币实际有效汇率是FDI的格兰杰原因,FDI不是人民币实际有效汇率的格兰杰原因;但脉冲响应结果显示,对我国FDI产生冲击最大的影响因素其实是FDI自身在不同考察期内的数值,人民币实际有效汇率对FDI的影响则比较有限。Taking July 21,2005, when China implemented the exchange rate reform policies,as time dividing point, this article employs Chow Breakpoint Test to empirically test whether China＇ s exchange rate reform policies will have an impact over the relationship between real effective RMB exchange rate and China＇ s FDI. Besides,this article also combines static methods like co- integration test and Granger causality test with dynamic methods like impulse response analysis to study their ecpl,alization, causal relationship and effect degree. The resuit indicates that： the exchange rate reform policies have an effect on the relationship between exchange rate and FDI; there is a long and steady equilibrium relation between real effeetive RMB exchange rate and FDI; before the exchange rate reform,real effective RMB exchange rate is the granger cause of FDI, and FDI is not the granger cause of real effective RMB exchange rate; the impulse response results indicate that the FDI value in different investigation periods is the biggest impact factor to FDI, while the influence of real effective RMB exchange rate on FDI is limited.

关 键 词：人民币实际有效汇率 FDI 汇改政策 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F224