“车市波动理论”剖析中国车市15年  

Automotive Market Fluctuation Theory-Analyzing 15 Years Chinese Automotive Market

作　　者：王福民 

机构地区：[1]天津市

出　　处：《汽车工程师》2015年第9期13-15,共3页Automotive Engineer

摘　　要：文章结合中国车市发展过程,介绍自2000年提出车市波动理论以来,用新观点剖析中国车市的过程,在若干重大问题上发表独特的观点,多次超前预报并为实践证实。文中简明扼要地介绍了车市波动理论的主要内容,包括中国车市波动规律研究与车市波动分析法,以及年度和季度波动图。文章也介绍了从1978年以来6次汽车波动周期的最新核算结果,提出"中国车市困难暂时(2年左右),前景乐观的新观点"。This paper introduces the analysis of Chinese auto market based on new view of automotive market fluett, ation theory proposed from the year of 2000 combined with the process of Chinese auto market development, the unique ideas on some very＇ important issues were presented, predicted and verified. The paper hrief describes the main contents of fluctuation theory, including Chinese auto market fluetuation rule, fluctuation analysis method and diagrams of year and season. The paper also presents the latest calculation of total 6 times of auto market fluctuation since 1978, proposes the new idea that Chinese auto market will be weak in coming 2 years, but has a bright prospective.

关 键 词：车市波动理论 波动规律 波动分析法 扩张系数 

分 类 号：F426.471[经济管理—产业经济]