环境污染群体性事件的信息传播Kermack-Mckendrick模型  

Kermack-Mckendrick Model of Informational Spreading in Environmental Pollution Incident

作　　者：刘金全[1] 魏玉嫔[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学,长春130012

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报（社科版）》2015年第5期32-36,共5页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(批准号10ZD&006)

摘　　要：在我国社会转型期各种类型环境污染群体性事件频繁发生。根据环境污染群体性事件信息传播的阈值特征和类型特征,运用Kermack-Mckendrick传染病模型,构建了环境污染突发事件的信息传播模型,分析了信息传播(尤其是谣言传播)的特征,以及政府采取信息控制措施如何影响事态演化规律,最后,结合"杞人忧钴"事件进行了环境污染群体性事件演化过程的算例分析。研究表明,在谣言的自身传播过程中,谣言传播者的人数先单调增加,达到一个最大值,然后单调减少并趋于零;地方政府对谣言传播施加有效的控制措施,能够降低谣言传播的最大阈值,促使事态尽快收敛。In the period of social transition in occurred frequently. Based on the threshold of mass China, all types of mass incidents of environmental pollution incidents of environmental pollution information transmission features and types and using the Kermack Mckendrick epidemic model, this paper builds a ring of gold pollution emergency information transmission model, and analyzes characteristics of information transmission （especially the rumor spread） and how the government＇s information control measures influence the situation evolution. Finally, combined with ＂worrywarts sorrow cobalt＂ event, it analyzes the mass incidents of environmental pollution evolution process. Research shows that in the process of spread rumors of its own, the number of rumor-mongers monotonic increases first, reaching a maximum value, then monotone decreases and tends to zero. Besides, local governments exert effective control measures on rumors spread, which can maximum threshold to reduce the spread of rumors and prompt the situation convergence as soon as possible.

关 键 词：环境污染群体性事件 信息传播 传染病传播模型 阀值分析 谣言传播 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]