泥石流堰塞湖影响区域评估及其应急预案——以汶川县磨子沟为例  

Assessment of influence area and emergency plan for debris-flow dammed lake——A case study in Mozi Gully of Wenchuan,Sichuan

作　　者：刘晶晶[1,2] 孙正超[3] 程尊兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所、中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,成都610041 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039 [3]西南石油大学土木工程与建筑学院,成都610500

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2015年第5期1040-1046,共7页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：中科院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-05-01);国家自然科学基金项目(41201010);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301037);中国科学院西部之光基金资助

摘　　要：2008年汶川"5·12"地震后,汶川震区内大量新、老泥石流沟的泥石流活动频度增加,致使泥石流堰塞湖的形成几率也随之增大。通常泥石流所形成的堰塞体稳定性较差,从形成至溃决通常在几小时内发生,人工工程干预的可能性小。因此,做好堰塞湖溃决洪水影响区域评估和溃决洪水应急预案,成为必要且有效的减灾手段之一。但泥石流堰塞湖的溃决洪水既不同于一般意义的洪水,也不同于人工大坝的溃决,是过去应急预案研究中较少涉及的灾种。选择汶川磨子沟作为研究对象,在泥石流堰塞湖溃决危险性评估基础上提出溃决洪水应急预案的编制原则和方法:首先确定泥石流堰塞湖可能溃决的最大洪峰流量、淹没高度、泛滥范围和持续时间;其后,实地调查居民点,圈定洪水淹没范围和危险区人口数,并根据地形条件制定可能的撤退路线;最后,结合政府部门的行政安排,制定险情通报程序、险情发生安全保障措施和预案启动、结束的时间节点。试图为其余泥石流堰塞湖溃决洪水危害应急预案制定提供借鉴,提升应对突发泥石流堰塞湖溃决事件的效率。After the '5.12 Wenchuan earthquake',a large number of new and old debris-flow gullies increase their activities,and the possibility of dammed lake formed by debris flow increases as well.The dam formed by debris flow is unstable,and there are only a few hours from the dam formation to outburst,so it is difficult to conduct man-made engineering intervention.Assessment of influence area and establishment of emergency plan for debris-flow dammed lake are necessary and effective for disaster reduction.The dam-failure flood caused by debris-flow dammed lake is different from the traditional flood or the outburst of man-made dam,which is an infrequent disaster type in the emergency plans.The Mozi Gully was chosen as the study object,and the principles and preparation methods of emergency plans were put forward on the basis of risk assessment for the outburst of debris-flow dammed lake.First,the potential peak flow,flood height,and outburst duration time were determined for the outburst of debris-flow dammed lake.Second,the inundation area was circled and risk population was estimated through field survey,and possible escape route and aftercare locations were chosen according to terrain conditions.Finally,the notification procedures,security measures,and time node of emergency plan starting and ending were set based on governmental administrative arrangements.The emergency plan for the Mozi Gully can lay the foundation for the similar plans of other dangerous debris-flow gullies and improve the response efficiency of debris-flow dammed lake.

关 键 词：泥石流 堰塞湖 溃决洪水 影响区域 应急预案 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]