城市新区环境规划的“响应–调控”模型研究  

An Integrated Simulation and Optimization Modeling Approach for Environmental Planning in New Urban Areas

作　　者：都小尚[1,2] 阳平坚[2] 盛虎[3] 刘慧[2] 郭怀成[2] 刘永[2] 于鲁冀[4] 

机构地区：[1]郑州市环境保护科学研究所,郑州410100 [2]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871 [3]南京大学环境学院,南京210093 [4]郑州大学水利与环境学院,郑州450001

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第5期913-922,共10页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：教育部博士点基金(20120001110056);中国工程院重大咨询项目(2012-ZD-8-5-1)资助

摘　　要：针对城市新区社会经济环境系统所具有的整体性、不确定性、综合性和动态性特点,构建不确定性的新区社会经济环境系统"响应–调控"模型,包括4个关键步骤:系统动态响应模拟,情景分析与评价,优化调控模型构建,以及决策偏好与优化调控方案生成。设计3个子情景来比较分析不同新区发展模式下的环境压力,包括经济结构调整型发展情景(Ⅰ)、资源环境约束型发展情景(Ⅱ)和资源环境协调型发展情景(Ⅲ)。以郑州新区为例开展实证研究,结合情景分析和决策者偏好,对新区规划实施所产生的社会经济发展及环境压力响应进行模拟预测。模型结果显示:新区COD排放量将由2008年的19693 t/a提高到2020年的33806 t/a。Based on the holistic, integrated and dynamic characteristics of new urban areas, the uncertainty-based scenario optimization method was used, combined with the preferential decision-making of the industrial development, to stimulate the areas＇ socio-economic and environmental system. Four steps were involved in the proposed modeling framework, including systematic response modeling, scenarios analysis and evaluation, optimal model development, and final decision schemes determination. Three scenarios were designed according to the socio-economic development, emissions of major pollutants and the main constraint resources consumption. A case study in Zhengzhou New District, Henan Province was carried out and optimized socio-economic development scheme was proposed. The model results show that the COD discharge will increase from 19693 t/a in 2008 to 33806 t/a in 2020.

关 键 词：社会经济环境系统 情景 优化 决策偏好 郑州新区 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]