过去千年中国北方气候的年代际变化及其同大气环流的联系:基于CCSM4模拟试验  

Multi-decadal-scale climatic variation in northern China during the last millennium and its correlation with atmospheric circulation:Results from CCSM4 Simulation

作　　者：徐婷婷[1] 石正国[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安710075

出　　处：《地球环境学报》2012年第2期835-844,共10页Journal of Earth Environment

基　　金：中科院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-04-07);中科院重要方向项目(KZCX2-EW-114)国家重点基础研究规划项目(2013CB955904)

摘　　要：利用CCSM4模拟实验结果对过去千年中国北方季风区、干旱区的温度与降水,以及其与北大西洋涛动、南方涛动的关系进行了分析。研究发现在中世纪暖期、小冰期和20世纪增暖期,两区域都存在暖湿—冷干—暖湿的变化,且具有显著的年代际变率。这同地质记录较为一致,显示了CCSM4在中国北方有很好的模拟能力。周期分析表明,两区域的温度和降水均有共同的显著周期;但不同区域存在一定差异。北大西洋涛动与温度有准50年,与降水有准80年的共同周期;南方涛动与温度有准70年,与降水有准80年的共同周期。且在年代际尺度上,两个涛动大体上与两区域的气候存在显著相关。因此,大尺度气候模态变化对过去千年中国北方气候年代际变率具有非常重要的影响。Based on the CCSM4 results, the variations of the temperature and precipitation in the monsoonal and arid zones of northern China during the last millennium and their correlations with North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） and Southern Oscillation （SO） are analyzed. Consistent with various geological records, a simulated ＂warm--humid, cold--dry, warm--humid＂ shift is clearly shown in both regions during Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and Current Warm Period, which proves the performance of CCSM4 in northern China. Power spectrum analysis show that temperature, as well as precipitation, in both zones have common periodicities, however, differences exist between zones. NAO owns the common periodicities of quasi-50 yr with temperature, and of quasi-80 yr with precipitation. SO and temperature have quasi-70 yr periodicity in common while SO and precipitation have quasi-80 yr periodicity. Moreover, NAO and SO correlate significantly with both the monsoonal and arid climate variations on muhi-decadal scale. Thus, the large-scale atmospheric circulation could exert great influences on the muhi-decadal-scale climatic variation in northern China during the last millennium.

关 键 词：过去千年 年代际变化 北大西洋涛动 南方涛动 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P534.63