中国经常账户调整是危机冲击还是结构性转型驱动?  

Chinese Current Account Adjustment: Is Crisis Shock or Structural Transformation Driving?

作　　者：姚海华[1] 靳玉英[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海关学院经济与工商管理系 [2]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2015年第10期61-70,89,共11页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"世界经济周期性波动及其对我国宏观审慎监管框架构建的政策含义研究"(项目编号:12AZD051);国家自然科学基金项目"全球价值链上中国加工贸易增加值的区域间分解及其转型升级路径研究"(项目编号:71503164);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"东亚对华产业转移的贸易收支效应研究"(项目编号:11YJC790240)的阶段性研究成果;2013年上海市教委科研创新基金(项目编号:13YS143);韩国高等教育财团国际学术交流项目资助

摘　　要：文章基于企业异质性理论的实证方法,利用行业层面和企业层面的进出口数据,揭示了中国经常账户盈余背后的产业结构特征,并深入挖掘了隐藏在产业背后的企业主导力量。结果发现:(1)劳动密集型产业是贸易盈余的主要来源,技术密集型产业的贸易盈余创造能力还比较薄弱;(2)不同行业中贸易盈余的创造普遍依靠企业在传统产品上的数量扩张效应,新企业进入和企业新产品品种效应对增加贸易盈余的作用十分有限;(3)金融危机之后数量扩张效应迅速拉动了贸易顺差的恢复性增长,经常账户的逆转应归咎于国内经济的结构转型而非危机冲击。The reversal of China's current account has drawn the attention from all fields since US sub-prime debt crisis occured. By adopting the industry-level trade data,the paper reveals the industrial structural feature of China's current account surplus. In addition,the paper further excavates the firm leading force in each industry by using the firm-level trade data. The results show:( 1) Labor-intensive industries are the main resources of China's trade surplus while the foreign exchange-earning ability of technology-intensive industries is still relatively weak.( 2) In most industries,trade surplus is mainly attributed to the intensive margin on existing products,and the extensive margins of new enterprises and new product varieties are negligible.( 3) Intensive margin drives the rapid recovery growth of China's trade surplus after the 2008 global financial crisis,and it can be properly inferred that the reversal of China's current account should be attributed to Chinese economy structural transformation other than crisis shock.

关 键 词：经常账户 调整 危机冲击 结构转型 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]